Fig. 4

Overall activity of aftershocks of M ≥ 4.2. Empirical (black) and theoretical (red) cumulative functions and magnitudes plotted against ordinary time (a, c) and transformed times (b, d). a, b The ETAS fitting in the target interval from 1 h until 2 days and then extrapolated until the M7.3 event; c, d The ETAS fitting in the target interval from 1 h until the M7.3 event and then extrapolated until the end of October 2015. The parabolas in b, d represent the 95 % confidence ranges of the extrapolated curve