Fig. 8

Assessing solar activity and GDM reconstruction of the Bayesian model with the synthetic dataset. Posterior distributions of solar activity (a) and GDM (b) depicted with means (red lines) and 2-sigma uncertainty of a thousand realizations (light red shadings). The prior distributions are also depicted with the 2-sigma uncertainty (black dashed lines). The blue lines represent the reference ϕ' and M' and the orange lines represent the recent values that the model is connected to, i.e., ϕ_HE16 and GDM based on COV-OBS. × 2. c Shows the mean (red line) and 2-sigma uncertainty (light red shading) of a thousand ¹⁴C production rate curves generated by the recovered ϕ and M. The reference ¹⁴C production rate is represented by the blue line. d Shows the histogram of the model-data residuals (grey bars) defined as the differences between individual posterior realizations of ¹⁴C production rate and the input ¹⁴C data, normalized by the data uncertainties. A standard normal distribution is shown as the blue line for comparison