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Table 1 Occurrence times and magnitudes (Mu, Utsu magnitude; Mt, tsunami magnitude) of historical great earthquakes along the Nankai Trough (Earthquake Research Committee 2013) and our target magnitude range (Mtarget) for each of those earthquakes

From: Simulation of great earthquakes along the Nankai Trough: reproduction of event history, slip areas of the Showa Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes, heterogeneous slip-deficit rates, and long-term slow slip events

Name

Occurrence Time

Magnitude

Mu

Mt

Mtarget

Shohei (Koan) Tokai

Aug. 1 or 3, 1361

–

–

–

Shohei (Koan) Nankai

Aug. 3, 1361

8.3–8.5

–

–

Meio Tokai

Sep. 20, 1498

8.2–8.4

8.5

–

Keicho

Feb. 3, 1605

7.9

8.2

–

Hoei

Oct. 28, 1707

8.6

8.4

8.4–8.6

Ansei Tokai

Dec. 23, 1854

8.4

8.3

8.3–8.4

Ansei Nankai

Dec. 24, 1854

8.4

8.3

8.3–8.4

Showa Tonankai

Dec. 7, 1944

7.9

8.1

7.9–8.1

Showa Nankai

Dec. 21, 1946

8.0

8.1

8.0–8.1