Figure 2

Differential probability gain functions for EAST model with respect to EEPAS model. Estimation of the differential probability gain functions, g EASTEEPAS, of the EAST forecast model with respect to the EEPAS model for California from January 1984 to June 2009. (a, b, and c) Molchan diagrams, in which we smooth the Molchan trajectory (red line) by a set of segments (black lines; see Appendix 1). The g EASTEEPAS value is the local slope of these segments. (d, e, and f) Differential probability gain g EASTEEPAS as a function of the alarm function A_EAST of the EAST models. We use three nonoverlapping magnitude intervals of [4.95;5.45) in (a) and (d), [5.45;5.95) in (b) and (e), and [ 5.95;∞) in (c) and (f). Note that for (a) and (d), we use a shorter time period from January 1995 to June 2009 to eliminate aftershocks of the Landers earthquake.