Figure 5

Comparison of forecasts of the EAST ∗EEPAS and the EAST _R +EEPAS models using Molchan diagrams. The tests were done in the entire California CSEP testing region (a) and in a reduced region (b) that does not include off-coast and outside USA areas (Shebalin et al. 2011). Using Molchan diagrams, we compare the forecasts of the EAST ∗EEPAS (black lines) and EAST _R+EEPAS (magenta lines) models with respect to the RI reference model. In the linear combination EAST _R+EEPAS, the rates issued from both forecast models have the same weight. The dashed diagonal line corresponds to an unskilled forecast. The shaded area indicates the zone in which the forecast of the tested model outperforms the forecast of the reference model at a level of significance α=1%. For both combined models, we consider single rate values obtained by summing the expected rates of M≥4.95 target earthquakes.