Figure 7

Level of noise in combined forecast models using the differential probability gains approach. The EAST ∗EEPAS model is successively combined with 10 random rate-based models for M>4.95 target earthquakes (see text). (a) Differential probability gain g(A) estimated during the learning period from January 1984 to June 2009. (b) For the same period, comparison of two consecutive generation forecasts before and after the 7th iteration using a Molchan diagram. This iteration exhibits the largest deviation from the diagonal. (c) Evaluation of the initial (black line) and final (red line) generation forecasts with respect to the RI reference model for the testing period from July 2009 to December 2011. In these Molchan diagrams, the dashed diagonal line corresponds to an unskilled forecast. The shaded area indicates the zone in which the forecast of the tested model outperforms the forecast of the reference model at a level of significance α=1%.