Combining earthquake forecasts using differential probability gains

Earth, Planets and Space

Table 1 Complete and spatial likelihood results for the forecasts

Period	$N_{{target}^{a}}$	EAST ∗ EEPAS	EAST + EEPAS	EAST_R	EEPAS	RI
Complete likelihood
Jul-Aug 2009	2	−13.62	−15.71	−15.96	−15.58	−18.64
Sep-Dec 2009	2	−17.65	−18.82	−19.42	−18.44	−20.93
Jan-Mar 2010	2	−24.97	−24.56	−26.76	−23.57	−25.17
Apr-Jun 2010	8	−74.79	−76.13	−77.82	−77.35	−81.69
Jul-Aug 2010	2	−14.87	−14.25	−17.47	−16.71	−19.65
Sep-Dec 2010	0	−2.18	−1.88	−1.36	−2.40	−1.78
Jan-Mar 2011	1	−8.22	−7.94	−11.62	−7.70	−11.07
Apr-Jun 2011	1	−12.50	−12.23	−12.12	−12.40	−11.55
Jul-Aug 2011	0	−1.75	−1.74	−1.36	−2.12	−1.78
Sep-Dec 2011	1	−13.48	−12.81	−12.29	−13.41	−11.66
Jul 2009-Dec 2011	19	−184.04	−186.07	−196.17	−189.66	−203.91
Jul 2009-Dec 2011 ^b	14	−137.68	−140.08	−138.63	−146.48	−151.46
Spatial likelihood
Jul-Aug 2009	2	−10.64	−12.45	−12.67	−12.46	−15.15
Sep-Dec 2009	2	−13.44	−13.68	−15.15	−13.15	−15.47
Jan-Mar 2010	2	−16.18	−16.27	−17.76	−15.40	−16.65
Apr-Jun 2010	8	−42.07	−44.76	−45.20	−46.11	−51.93
Jul-Aug 2010	2	−11.49	−10.69	−13.75	−12.81	−15.51
Sep-Dec 2010	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Jan-Mar 2011	1	−6.24	−6.01	−9.84	−5.55	−9.02
Apr-Jun 2011	1	−10.70	−10.42	−10.41	−10.43	−9.72
Jul-Aug 2011	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Sep-Dec 2011	1	−11.64	−10.98	−10.61	−11.36	−9.83
Jul 2009-Dec 2011	19	−122.40	−125.27	−135.39	−127.27	−143.29
Jul 2009-Dec 2011 ^b	14	−88.93	−92.39	−92.45	−96.62	−103.87

^aN_target is the number of M ≥ 4.95 earthquakes during the indicated periods.
^bReduced region to exclude off-coast and outside USA areas. Complete and spatial likelihood results for the forecasts of the EAST ∗EEPAS, linear combination EAST+EEPAS (half and half), EAST _R, EEPAS, and RI reference models.