Fig. 5

The expected earthquake size around the source areas of actual M9-class events, as estimated using the seismic catalog before (a–c) and after (c–e) the seismic events. Color shows the magnitudes of the potential earthquakes that are estimated from the size of the slip-deficient ellipse for each grid point. Unreliable grid points that have no slip-deficient grid points within their ellipses are shown by translucent colors. a The Kuril, Japan, and Izu–Bonin trenches. The source area of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (Mw9.0) is enclosed by a solid line, and the trench is shown by a solid blue line. Arrows show the relative motion of the overriding plate with respect to the subducting slab. b The Java trench. The source areas of past earthquakes including the 2004 Sumatra earthquake (Mw9.2) are enclosed by solid lines. The rupture areas of the 2005 (Mw8.7), 2007 (Mw7.9), 2007 (Mw8.4), 2007 (Mw8.4), 1935 (Mw7.7), 1833 (M~9.0), and 1797 (M~8.4) events are modified from Briggs et al. (2006). c The Chile trench. The source areas of the two M9-class events are shown by solid lines (e.g., Barrientos and Ward 1990; Pollitz et al. 2011). d Kamchatka. The source area of the 1952 Kamchatka earthquake (Mw9.0) is enclosed by a solid line. e Alaska. The source area of the 1964 Alaska earthquake (Mw9.2) is enclosed by a solid line. The rupture area is modified from Christensen and Beck (1994). The color scales, legend, and arrow length are the same for a–e