Fig. 3

Accumulated moment deficit and co-seismic moment released due to major earthquakes from 1255 to 2015 along the 400-km-long eastern stretch of the Main Frontal Thrust, between Kathmandu klippe and eastern India/Nepal border (Fig. 4). Accumulated moment deficit rates and uncertainties (dark gray) are predicted from local seismic coupling distribution (Ader et al., 2012). Upper and lower dashed lines correspond to the seismic moment accumulated on a MHT fully locked downdip over 80 km, accommodating 18.5 and 17.5 mm/year shortening, respectively. Moments released in 1833, 1866, 1934, and 2015 earthquakes are derived from published minimum (green) and maximum (blue) moment magnitude estimates for these events. Periods 1344 and 1408 AD were assigned a moment release that is identical to the 1833 AD (green) and 2015 AD (blue) earthquakes, which is probably a lower estimate considering their macroseismic effect in Kathmandu valley and the possible surface rupture. No post-seismic strain releases were taken into account (see the text for details)