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Table 1 Magnitude and afterslip needed in 1833 and 1934 to balance the seismic slip deficit accumulated since the great 1255 AD earthquake

From: Slip deficit in central Nepal: omen for a repeat of the 1344 AD earthquake?

Earthquake rupture modela Area ruptured in km2 Magnitude testedb Magnitude neededc Afterslip in %d
1833_H1
Patch 1A
85 × 40 7.3–7.7 8.0 25001200
1833_H2
Patch 1B
120 × 40 7.3–7.7 8.1 1500400
1934_H1
Patch 2A
143 × 80 8.1–8.4 8.40 1700
1934_H2
Patch 2A + B’
12,500 8.1–8.4 8.42 1955
1934_H3
All patches 2
19,200 8.1–8.4 8.54 36065
  1. The input parameters are in bold
  2. aThe surfaces ruptured (fault patches 1A–1B for 1833 and 2A–2C’ for 1934) are illustrated on Fig. 4. Patches 1A and 1B correspond, respectively, to ruptures with a lateral extent of 85 km, corresponding to the MSK VIII isoseismal, and ruptures of 120 km
  3. bCorresponds to the minimum and maximum magnitudes assigned to each event (see the text for discussion and references)
  4. cCorresponds to the magnitude needed at the time of the earthquake to release all the slip deficit on the fault patch since 1255 AD, assuming a patch fully locked during interseismic and the slip deficit of 17.8 mm/year estimated by Ader et al. (2012)
  5. dFor the need of afterslip in % of the coseismic slip to fully release the slip deficit on the fault patch