Slip deficit in central Nepal: omen for a repeat of the 1344 AD earthquake?

Earth, Planets and Space

Table 1 Magnitude and afterslip needed in 1833 and 1934 to balance the seismic slip deficit accumulated since the great 1255 AD earthquake

Earthquake rupture model^a	Area ruptured in km²	Magnitude tested^b	Magnitude needed^c	Afterslip in %^d
1833_H1 *Patch 1A*	85 × 40	7.3–7.7	8.0	2500–1200
1833_H2 *Patch 1B*	120 × 40	7.3–7.7	8.1	1500–400
1934_H1 *Patch 2A*	143 × 80	8.1–8.4	8.40	170–0
1934_H2 *Patch 2A + B’*	12,500	8.1–8.4	8.42	195–5
1934_H3 *All patches 2*	19,200	8.1–8.4	8.54	360–65

The input parameters are in bold
^aThe surfaces ruptured (fault patches 1A–1B for 1833 and 2A–2C’ for 1934) are illustrated on Fig. 4. Patches 1A and 1B correspond, respectively, to ruptures with a lateral extent of 85 km, corresponding to the MSK VIII isoseismal, and ruptures of 120 km
^bCorresponds to the minimum and maximum magnitudes assigned to each event (see the text for discussion and references)
^cCorresponds to the magnitude needed at the time of the earthquake to release all the slip deficit on the fault patch since 1255 AD, assuming a patch fully locked during interseismic and the slip deficit of 17.8 mm/year estimated by Ader et al. (2012)
^dFor the need of afterslip in % of the coseismic slip to fully release the slip deficit on the fault patch