Fig. 3

GNSS time series after the main shock on 11 March 2011, and the time series calculated using the log + exp model (Model 1). The black closed circles denote the observed GNSS positions 2 years after the main shock with respect to the position just before the main shock. The red line was fitted to the positions observed in the 2-year fitting period (indicated by the purple background area) between 12 March 2011 and 11 March 2013. The red line was extended to 4.6 years after the main shock based on calculations using the model. The brown, blue, and green lines, respectively, indicate the logarithmic, exponential, and steady velocity components and have been drawn so that their intercept would be the same as that of the red line. The summations of these components using certain offsets correspond to the calculated positions indicated by the red line. The grey closed circles denote the observed GNSS position during the prediction period after the fitting period