Table 4 Estimated Dstmin based on formulae obtained from Wu and Lepping (2016) with \( B_{{z_{ \hbox{min} } }} \) = −23 nT
From: The first super geomagnetic storm of solar cycle 24: “The St. Patrick’s day event (17 March 2015)”
Range of MC’s averaged speeda | Estimating Dst formula using \( B_{{z_{ \hbox{min} } }} \) in MCb | Pred. Dst cmin | Error (%)d | Estimating Dst formula using \( B_{{z_{ \hbox{min} } }} \) in MC or sheathb | Pred. Dst cmin | Error (%)d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. V < 400a | Dstmin = 12.12 + 6.55\( B_{{z_{ \hbox{min} } }} \) | −138.5 | 39.3 | 11. Dstmin = 14.19 + 6.52\( B_{{z_{ \hbox{min} } }} \) | −135.8 | 40.4 |
2. 400 < V < 500 | Dstmin = −21.08 + 4.82\( B_{{z_{ \hbox{min} } }} \) | −131.9 | 42.1 | 12. Dstmin = −16.14 + 4.50\( B_{{z_{ \hbox{min} } }} \) | −119.6 | 47.5 |
3. 500 < V < 600 | Dst min = −9.31 + 9.08 \( B_{{z_{ \hbox{min} } }} \) | −218.2 e | 4.3 | 13. Dstmin = 28.94 + 8.23\( B_{{z_{ \hbox{min} } }} \) | −160.4 | 29.6 |
4. 600 < V < 750 | Dst min = −70.76 + 6.55 \( B_{{z_{ \hbox{min} } }} \) | −221.4 | 2.9 | 14. Dstmin = 36.18 + 8.65\( B_{{z_{ \hbox{min} } }} \) | −162.8 | 28.6 |
5. V > 750 | Dstmin = −147.07 + 2.84\( B_{{z_{ \hbox{min} } }} \) | −212.4 | 6.8 | 15. Dstmin = −32.14 + 4.54\( B_{{z_{ \hbox{min} } }} \) | −136.6 | 40.1 |
94 MCshock | ||||||
6. V < 400 | Dstmin = 12.28 + 6.82\( B_{{z_{ \hbox{min} } }} \) | −144.5 | 36.6 | 16. Dstmin = −10.83 + 5.42\( B_{{z_{ \hbox{min} } }} \) | −114.8 | 49.6 |
7. 400 < V < 500 | Dstmin = −43.37 +3.37\( B_{{z_{ \hbox{min} } }} \) | −120.9 | 47.0 | 17. Dstmin = −36.69 + 3.21\( B_{{z_{ \hbox{min} } }} \) | −111.7 | 51.0 |
8. 500 < V < 600 | Dstmin = −54.55 + 4.72\( B_{{z_{ \hbox{min} } }} \) | −163.1 | 28.5 | 18. Dstmin = −13.01 + 5.14\( B_{{z_{ \hbox{min} } }} \) | −132.8 | 41.8 |
9. 600 < V < 750 | Dstmin = −66.72 + 7.53\( B_{{z_{ \hbox{min} } }} \) | −239.9 | 5.2 | 19. Dstmin = 75.96 + 10.43\( B_{{z_{ \hbox{min} } }} \) | −191.2 | 16.1 |
10. 750 < V | Dstmin = −147.07 + 2.84\( B_{{z_{ \hbox{min} } }} \) | −212.4 | 6.8 | 20. Dstmin = −32.14 + 4.54\( B_{{z_{ \hbox{min} } }} \) | −141.9 | 37.9 |