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Table 1 Warnings from April 14 to 19 and corresponding data from the actual earthquakes

From: Earthquake early warning for the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake: performance evaluation of the current system and the next-generation methods of the Japan Meteorological Agency

Warning Actual earthquake
# Day Issuance time Lapse time/s Epicenter location Mag. Max. seismic intensity Score (%) Epicenter location Mag. Max. seismic intensity
1 14 21:26:42.5 3.8 (1) 6.5 6U 100.0 (1) 6.5 7
2 22:08:11.9 21.2 (1) 5.4 5L 88.9 (1) 5.8 6L
3 22:38:51.8 5.0 (1) 5.1 5L 100.0 (1) 5.0 5L
4 15 00:03:53.9 4.1 (1) 5.9 5U 91.7 (1) 6.4 6U
5 16 01:25:14.0 3.9 (1) 5.9 5U 45.7 (1) 7.3 7
01:25:18.7 8.6 (1) 6.9 6U 97.4 (4) 5.7
6 01:44:17.8 5.2 (1) 5.4 5L 100.0 (1) 5.4 5L
7 01:46:10.7 9.7 (1) 6.0 6L 100.0 (1) 5.9 6L
8 03:03:21.0 5.3 (2) 5.8 5U 100.0 (2) 5.9 5U
9 03:56:02.3 3.4 (2) 5.9 5L 68.4 (2) 5.8 6U
10 04:15:18.9 6.8 (1) 6.4 5U 4.0 (1) 3.5 3
(2) 3.1
(4) 3.8
11 07:11:43.5 4.3 (4) 5.7 5L 22.2 (4) 5.4 5L
12 07:42:42.8 16.3 (5) 5.7 5L 8.3 (1) 4.2 4
(2)? NA
13 09:48:43.8 5.1 (1) 5.4 5L 85.7 (1) 5.4 6L
14 11:29:08.8 9.5 (6) 6.9 7 2.8 (1) 2.9 3
(4) 3.2
15 14:27:10.7 3.9 (2) 5.4 5L 33.3 (1) 4.6 4
16 16:02:10.0 5.1 (1) 5.4 5L 100.0 (1) 5.4 5L
17 17 19:31:17.1 43.9 (1) 5.5 5U 0.0 (4) 2.7 2
(1) 2.6
18 18 20:42:07.9 3.9 (2) 5.7 5U 90.9 (2) 5.8 5U
19 19 17:52:23.7 8.2 (1) 5.2 5L 100.0 (1) 5.5 5U
  1. This table lists prediction results with issuance times, prediction scores, and lapse times for issued warnings (the “Warning” section) and information on the actual earthquakes that occurred at the time (the “Actual earthquake” section). In the “Warning” section, a case with more than one row indicates that a warning was updated at least once. A case with more than one row in the “Actual earthquake” section indicates that more than one earthquake occurred simultaneously. The epicenter locations are specified by the numbers shown in Fig. 2c. For case No. 12, the epicenter location and magnitude of the second earthquake have not been precisely determined (the location is roughly estimated to be (2) but is still under investigation). The table is based on the earthquake catalog as of May 2016