Earthquake early warning for the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake: performance evaluation of the current system and the next-generation methods of the Japan Meteorological Agency

Earth, Planets and Space

Table 3 Warning results for the current, IPF, and PLUM methods for the six selected cases

# in Table 1	Current method		IPF method		PLUM method
# in Table 1	Issuance time	Score (%)	Issuance time	Score (%)	Issuance time	Score (%)
1	21:26:42.5	100.0	21:26:42.9	96.0	21:26:40.0–41.0	5.3
1	21:26:42.5	100.0	21:26:42.9	96.0	21:26:48.0–49.0	36.8
5	01:25:14.0	45.7	01:25:14.8	65.7	01:25:10.0–11.0	0.0
	01:25:14.0	45.7			01:25:16.0–17.0	8.6
	01:25:18.7	97.4			01:25:23.0–24.0	34.3
					01:25:31.0–32.0	45.7
					01:25:34.0–35.0	48.6
10	04:15:18.9	4.0	04:15:19.6	7.1	(no issued warning)
12	07:42:42.8	8.3	(no issued warning)		(no issued warning)
14	11:29:08.8	2.8	(no issued warning)		(no issued warning)
17	19:31:17.1	0.0	(no issued warning)		(no issued warning)

This table lists issuance times and prediction scores for warnings in case Nos. 1, 5, 10, 12, 14, and 17 in Table 1. Cases with multiple rows indicate that warnings were updated once or more. Issuance times for the PLUM method were obtained with 1-s accuracy since calculations were performed at 1-s intervals