Fig. 2
From: High-resolution 3D earthquake forecasting beneath the greater Tokyo area
Fitting of temporal models. The identical rising black lines in the three panels show the cumulative numbers of earthquakes of M4 and larger in the Kanto region, against the elapsed time over the entire period. a The red cumulative curve shows the theoretical numbers of M4 earthquakes and larger, from the beginning of the period. This was estimated using the ETAS model, fitted in the target period up until the time of the M9 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (indicated by the right side vertical dotted line), and extrapolated after that. b The thick gray line represents the expected cumulative curve obtained from model Eq. (1). c This panel shows the decomposition of the expected contributions to earthquake numbers, in the combined model Eq. (1), by background, self-triggering, and induced components