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Fig. 2 | Earth, Planets and Space

Fig. 2

From: A secular variation candidate model for IGRF-13 based on Swarm data and ensemble inverse geodynamo modelling

Fig. 2

A sketch of our workflow. Left panel: the initial magnetic field model for epoch 2019.0 \({{\mathbf {B}}}^{\text{ obs }}\) is estimated based on one year of Swarm data. This panel shows field lines of the axisymmetric meridional component of \({{\mathbf {B}}}^{\text{ obs }}\). The thick black lines correspond to the Earth’s surface, the core–mantle boundary and the inner-core boundary. Middle panel: the information on \({{\mathbf {B}}}^{\text{ obs }}\) is used together with the statistics of the coupled Earth dynamo model to estimate an ensemble of dynamo states for 2019.0. Shown is the radial magnetic field at the core–mantle boundary for a few members of the ensemble, with a zoom on ensemble member 43. For this ensemble member, an additional meridional slice comprises the axisymmetric meridional field lines on the right, and the axisymmetric toroidal field inside the core on the left, with a scale ranging from \(-2\) mT (red) to \(+2\)mT (blue). Right panel: each dynamo state is advanced in time until 2025.0. The 100 trajectories so obtained are used to estimate the average secular variation between 2020.0 and 2025.0

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