Earth, Planets and Space

Table 2 Contingency tables of DeFN forecasts in operation from January 2019 to June 2020

From: Operational solar flare prediction model using Deep Flare Net

(a) Threshold = 50%				(b) Threshold = 50%
≥ M-class flares		Observed events		≥ C-class flares		Observed events
≥ M-class flares		Yes	No	≥ C-class flares		Yes	No
Forecast	Yes	1	28	Forecast	Yes	27	18
events	No	3	2201	events	No	11	2177

(c) Threshold = 45%				(d) Threshold = 45%
≥ M-class flares		Observed events		≥ C-class flares		Observed events
≥ M-class flares		Yes	No	≥ C-class flares		Yes	No
Forecast	Yes	1	31	Forecast	Yes	30	27
events	No	3	2198	events	No	8	2168

(e) Threshold = 40%				(f) Threshold = 40%
≥ M-class flares		Observed events		≥ C-class flares		Observed events
≥ M-class flares		Yes	No	≥ C-class flares		Yes	No
Forecast	Yes	2	34	Forecast	Yes	32	34
events	No	2	2195	events	No	6	2161

The contingency tables show the forecast results for ≥ M-class flares and for ≥ C-class flares, with three different probability thresholds such as 50%, 45%, and 40%

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