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Table 2 Contingency tables of DeFN forecasts in operation from January 2019 to June 2020

From: Operational solar flare prediction model using Deep Flare Net

(a) Threshold = 50% (b) Threshold = 50%
≥ M-class flares Observed events ≥ C-class flares Observed events
Yes No Yes No
Forecast Yes 1 28 Forecast Yes 27 18
events No 3 2201 events  No 11 2177
(c) Threshold = 45% (d) Threshold = 45%
≥ M-class flares Observed events ≥ C-class flares Observed events
Yes No Yes No
Forecast Yes 1 31 Forecast Yes 30 27
events No 3 2198 events No 8 2168
(e) Threshold = 40% (f) Threshold = 40%
≥ M-class flares Observed events ≥ C-class flares Observed events
Yes No Yes No
Forecast Yes 2 34 Forecast Yes 32 34
events No 2 2195 events No 6 2161
  1. The contingency tables show the forecast results for ≥ M-class flares and for ≥ C-class flares, with three different probability thresholds such as 50%, 45%, and 40%