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Fig. 10 | Earth, Planets and Space

Fig. 10

From: Testing the seismic quiescence hypothesis through retrospective trials of alarm-based earthquake prediction in the Kurile–Japan subduction zone

Fig. 10

ROC diagram for the evaluation period of Experiment 3. Four earthquakes having 7.5 ≤ Mw < 8.5 that occurred in 1995.0–2015.0 were used in calculating r for each of the 210 models tried. The marker shape denotes the p-value in the learning period. Large red markers are used for learning-period elites (p < 15% and r > 0.5 in the learning period), listed in Tables 5 and 6. The three blue curves are identical to those in Figs. 4 and 9; that is, they correspond to (f, r) that would yield p = 5%, 10%, and 15% if there were eight target earthquakes

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