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Table 3 Required future research topics

From: Space weather benchmarks on Japanese society

Field

Effect

Research topic

Electricity

Black out

GIC calculation based on highly accurate ionospheric and magnetospheric currents

Impact assessment considering the resistance of each substation and transformer

Consideration of not only the effect of the transformer itself, but also the possibility of triggering a domino effect, e.g., the blackout associated with the Hokkaido Eastern Iburi Earthquake

Economic impact

Improvement of the accuracy of estimation of economic impact including consistency with GIC simulation results

Satellite operation

Spacecraft (surface charging)

Clarification of the relationship between the development of surface electric charging with causal changes in the surrounding space environment

Risk assessment considering various conditions, e.g., satellite position and the timing of the substorm (i.e., the relative position of the region with increased high-temperature electrons associated with the substorm), the energy spectrum of the substorm high-temperature electrons, the attitude at that time, the discharge threshold specific to each satellite related to its design and materials, the estimated discharge frequency, and whether the satellite is located in sunshine or shade

More analysis of the space environment around satellites and the satellite surface charging environment using observed data

Spacecraft (internal charging)

Verification of internal charging and discharging by experiments and simulations at the design stage

Spacecraft (single event upsets, deterioration of solar cells)

Quantitative evaluation of occurrence probabilities based on data analysis

Atmospheric drag

Development of a model that can quantitatively evaluate (i) the amount of heating of the upper atmosphere due to solar ultraviolet emissions and magnetic storms and (ii) the accompanying effects on the orbit and attitude of satellites

Radio communication and broadcasting

High-frequency (HF) hazard

Consideration of quantitative needs and seeds matching

Quantitative understanding of failure status and consideration of the causes

Creation of a real-time ionospheric global map by using worldwide ionospheric observation data

Very high frequency (VHF) hazard

Same as above

Positioning

 

Same as above

Development of technology to reinforce degraded satellite positioning signals

Aviation

Communication failure

Creation of a protocol for changing routes and suspension of operations via discussion with users

Poor positioning accuracy

Evaluation of standards determined by ICAO

Quantitative investigation of the effects of space weather phenomena on aircraft equipment required for the above evaluation

Aircrew exposure

Formulation of a protocol for reducing exposure dose, e.g., the allowable exposure dose rate

Investigation of the correlation of exposure dose and dose rate with the GLE scale EII and other indicators

Measurement of exposure dose by aircraft experiment and verification of model accuracy

Electronic device soft errors

Discussion of soft errors caused by SEPs in addition to galactic cosmic rays

Economic impact

Evaluation of the forecast accuracy and loss calculation used as a basis for determining whether space weather information is adopted

Human space activity

Astronaut exposure

Development of a detector that measures the proton flux in spacecraft in real time

Development of a model estimating the astronaut exposure dose from the response of a detector

Investigation of the correlation between exposure dose and GLE size measured by the EII index or other indicators

Daily life on the Earth’s surface

Exposure on the ground

No specific topics

Electronic device soft errors

Discussion of soft errors caused by SEPs in addition to galactic cosmic rays

Malfunction of signal equipment

No specific topics