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Fig. 4 | Earth, Planets and Space

Fig. 4

From: Efficiency of earthquake forecast models based on earth tidal correlation with background seismicity along the Tonga–Kermadec trench

Fig. 4

Molchan’s error diagrams for target earthquakes of magnitude a Mw ≥ 7.0, b Mw ≥ 6.5, c Mw ≥ 6.0, and d Mw ≥ 5.5 for a given threshold p-value pth. For each target magnitude, the optimum forecast that maximizes \({SS}_\text{P}\) (Eq. 3) is shown. Dashed lines indicate 99 and 95% confidence intervals for random guessing (solid black lines). Red stars and blue diamonds indicate the maximum \({SS}_\text{P}\) values obtained for the forecast and random guessing, respectively. The blue line in each figure indicates the range satisfying the maximum \({SS}_\text{P}\) for a 99% confidence interval for random guessing; only forecasts that plot below this line are considered useful

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