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Earth, Planets and Space
Fig. 3 | Earth, Planets and Space

Fig. 3

From: Rapid and quantitative uncertainty estimation of coseismic slip distribution for large interplate earthquakes using real-time GNSS data and its application to tsunami inundation prediction

Fig. 3

Overview of the “real-time tsunami inundation risk map” process in the case of using MCMC samples in stage 2. (i) Obtain enough Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samples to evaluate the uncertainty of the slip distribution model ("Stepwise partitioning algorithm" section). Then, extract the samples in which variance reduction (VR) is equivalent to the representative value based on the posterior probability density function (PDF). (ii) Classify them into small clusters (K) by the k-means approach using \({\varvec{\theta}}\) as the feature value. (iii) Generate K representative slip distributions (using the median value in each subfault), and using them as inputs, calculate K individual tsunami inundations. (iv) Count the number of inundations on the map

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