Time-independent forecast model for large crustal earthquakes in southwest Japan using GNSS data

Earth, Planets and Space

Table 2 Statistical scores for retrospective forecasts of M ≥ 6 crustal earthquakes

	VARI1	VARI2	VARI3	UNI1	UNI2	UNI3
Correlation coefficient	0.260	0.343	0.339	0.223	0.313	0.316
Probability gain per earthquake (G)	1.059	1.130	1.133	1.051	1.138	1.144
Proportion of epicenter concentration*	0.464	0.437	0.430	0.357	0.464	0.464
Proportion of moment concentration*	0.622	0.654	0.639	0.456	0.622	0.625
ASS for epicenter**	0.620	0.636	0.638	0.621	0.647	0.649
ASS for moment**	0.711	0.746	0.744	0.691	0.738	0.735

*Proportion of epicenters/moments of past earthquakes in cells of the upper 25% of high probability
**ASS area skill score; see main text for explanation