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Table 4 Statistical scores for prospective forecasts of M ≥ 5 crustal earthquakes

From: Time-independent forecast model for large crustal earthquakes in southwest Japan using GNSS data

  VARI3 (original catalog) UNI3 (original catalog) VARI3 (declustered catalog) UNI3 (declustered catalog)
Probability gain per earthquake (G) 1.152 1.330 1.003 1.200
ASS for epicenter* 0.650 0.734 0.575 0.668
ASS for moment* 0.810 0.833 0.789 0.815
  1. *ASS area skill score; see main text for explanation