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Table 5 Comparison of 30-year probability of M ≥ 6.8 crustal earthquakes with the HERP regional evaluation

From: Time-independent forecast model for large crustal earthquakes in southwest Japan using GNSS data

Region name

Active fault of HERP (%)

Seismicity of HERP (%)

VARI3 (%)

UNI3 (%)

Northern Kyushu (A)

9*

8*

5.3

6.5

Central Kyushu (B)

21*

11*

6.6

8.2

Southern Kyushu (C)

8*

19*

16.2

17.3

Northern Chugoku (D)

5*

40*

3.8

4.1

Eastern Chugoku (E)

2*

0.3*

4.7

2.9

Western Chugoku(F)

17*

6*

7.3

5.6

Shikoku (G)

10*

10*

13.0

11.8

  1. *Median value