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Table 5 Comparison of 30-year probability of M ≥ 6.8 crustal earthquakes with the HERP regional evaluation

From: Time-independent forecast model for large crustal earthquakes in southwest Japan using GNSS data

Region name Active fault of HERP (%) Seismicity of HERP (%) VARI3 (%) UNI3 (%)
Northern Kyushu (A) 9* 8* 5.3 6.5
Central Kyushu (B) 21* 11* 6.6 8.2
Southern Kyushu (C) 8* 19* 16.2 17.3
Northern Chugoku (D) 5* 40* 3.8 4.1
Eastern Chugoku (E) 2* 0.3* 4.7 2.9
Western Chugoku(F) 17* 6* 7.3 5.6
Shikoku (G) 10* 10* 13.0 11.8
  1. *Median value