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Earth, Planets and Space
Fig. 2 | Earth, Planets and Space

Fig. 2

From: Prediction and validation of short-to-long-term earthquake probabilities in inland Japan using the hierarchical space–time ETAS and space–time Poisson process models

Fig. 2

Snapshots of the optimal maximum a posteriori (MAP) conditional intensity function in Eq. (3) at the dates and times listed at the top for the HIST–ETAS–5pa model in a learning period 1885–2018 and b forecasting period starting from 2019 to September 2021. Contours in both images are presented with the common equidistant intervals in logarithmic scale. The color bars below the images represent the occurrence rate of a M ≥ 4.0 event per 1.0° × 1.0° cell per day on the ordinary logarithmic scale

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