Prediction and validation of short-to-long-term earthquake probabilities in inland Japan using the hierarchical space–time ETAS and space–time Poisson process models

Earth, Planets and Space

Table 1 Space–time log-likelihood score (7) of short-term forecasts

Forecast for magnitude range	M ≧ 4.0	M ≧ 4.5	M ≧ 5.0	M ≧ 5.5
Number of earthquakes	126	42	12	3
(a) Inland uniform Poisson	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
(b) Non-homogeneous Poisson	157.9	105.6	41.7	9.3
(c) HIST–ETAS–μK	551.2	252.5	49.9	− 3.2
(d) HIST–ETAS–5pa	638.7	276.6	55.8	− 3.9

Assuming the G–R law with b = 0.9 nationwide in Japan, these are the score values of the forecasting of earthquakes of respective magnitude ranges; scores are relative to those of the “inland uniform Poisson model.”