Prediction and validation of short-to-long-term earthquake probabilities in inland Japan using the hierarchical space–time ETAS and space–time Poisson process models

Earth, Planets and Space

Table 2 Spatial log-likelihood score (8) of intermediate-term forecasts for 2019 to September 2021

Forecast of magnitude range	M ≥ 4.0	M ≥ 4.5	M ≥ 5.0	M ≥ 5.5
Number of output events	126	42	12	3
(a) Inland uniform Poisson	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
(b) Non-homogeneous Poisson	139.68	59.71	20.31	3.04
(c) Background of HIST–ETAS–μK	91.24	41.79	9.30	− 1.35
(d) Background of HIST–ETAS–5pa	55.52	38.91	10.95	− 0.91

These are the scores of the forecasting of earthquakes of respective magnitude ranges; scores are relative to those of the “inland uniform Poisson” model