Prediction and validation of short-to-long-term earthquake probabilities in inland Japan using the hierarchical space–time ETAS and space–time Poisson process models

Earth, Planets and Space

Table 4 Spatial log-likelihood score of long-term “reverse prediction” of historical disaster earthquakes for 599–1884

Forecast of magnitude range	All events	M ≥ 6.0	M ≥ 6.5	M ≥ 7.0	M ≥ 7.5
Number of events	205	184	100	49	7
(a) Inland uniform Poisson	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
(b) Non-homogeneous Poisson	− 31.5	− 38.0	− 30.9	− 21.1	− 4.0
(c) HIST–ETAS–μK background	53.1	42.9	18.0	4.8	− 1.5
(d) HIST–ETAS–5pa background	61.2	52.4	24.2	8.2	− 0.5