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Table 5 Spatial log-likelihood score of long-term “reverse prediction” of historical disaster earthquakes for 1500–1884 that are at a lower latitude than 38°N

From: Prediction and validation of short-to-long-term earthquake probabilities in inland Japan using the hierarchical space–time ETAS and space–time Poisson process models

Forecast of magnitude range

All events

M ≥ 5.5

M ≥ 6.0

M ≥ 6.5

M ≥ 7.0

M ≥ 7.5

Number of events

131

129

114

57

25

3

(a) Uniform in inland Japan

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

(b) Non-homogeneous Poisson

− 7.8

− 11.3

− 15.7

− 16.3

− 12.4

− 1.2

(c) HIST–ETAS–μK background

32.9

28.1

24.0

9.8

4.0

1.1

(d) HIST–ETAS–5pa background

36.7

31.8

29.4

12.5

5.5

1.6

  1. Scores are the same as explained in Table 2