Fig. 9

Solar activity and GDM reconstructed by the Bayesian model for the last 2000 years. Posterior distributions of solar activity (a) and GDM (b) are depicted with mean (red lines) and 2-sigma uncertainty of a thousand realizations (light red shadings). The 2-sigma uncertainty of a thousand realizations from the prior distributions are indicated by two black dashed lines. Panel c shows the mean (red line) and 2-sigma posterior uncertainty (light red shading) of a thousand curves of ¹⁴C production rate generated by the recovered ϕ and M. The input mean ¹⁴C production rate is represented by the blue line. The uncertainty of the input ¹⁴C production rate (not shown in the figure) is similar to the posterior uncertainty (light red shading). Figure 2 shows the uncertainty of the input ¹⁴C production rate before normalization