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Table 2. The estimates of the models applied to the M ≥ 5 data. The same caption as for Table 1.

From: Significant improvements of the space-time ETAS model for forecasting of accurate baseline seismicity

Model unit

μ events/day/deg2

K events/day/deg2

c days

α 1/mag

p —

d deg2

q —

AIC, ABIC —

Space-Time ETAS0iso

1.26E-05

1.49E-04

4.66E-03

1.079

0.891

5.90E-03

1.713

82643.0

Space-Time ETAS0aniso

1.27E-05

1.47E-04

4.66E-03

1.083

0.890

5.66E-03

1.706

82592.8

Space-Time ETASiso

7.97E-06

8.79E-05

4.48E-03

1.257

0.891

4.88E-03

1.763

81893.7

Space-Time ETASaniso

8.04E-06

8.68E-05

4.48E-03

1.263

0.891

4.67E-03

1.756

81838.1

μK-HIST-ETAS0 weights

9.47E-04

2.62E-05

2.46E-02

1.310

1.090

3.00E-03

1.830

—

 

0.439

0.184

—

—

—

—

—

80655.7

μK-HIST-ETAS weights

1.50E-03

1.59E-05

2.46E-02

1.340

1.100

2.85E-03

1.890

—

 

0.448

0.158

—

—

—

—

—

78095.5

HIST-ETAS0 weights

9.47E-04

2.62E-05

2.46E-02

1.310

1.090

3.00E-03

1.830

—

 

0.439

0.184

—

5.84

28.3

—

93900

80391.9

HIST-ETAS weights

1.33E-03

2.59E-05

9.45E-03

0.940

1.060

3.51E-03

1.910

—

 

0.461

0.241

—

5.84

28.3

—

93900

77552.7