Fig. 2.

Molchan trajectory analysis of RI (squares) and PI (triangles) relative to the NSHM reference model. A Molchan trajectory refers to the plot of the miss rate ? against the fraction τ of space-time occupied by alarm. Also shown in the plot are the α =1, 5, and 10% confidence boundaries. Data points lying below these boundaries reject the alarm region null hypothesis. In this plot, both PI and RI are significantly better than the NSHM at forecasting future earthquakes in the range ν = 0.0–0.5 at the 95% confidence level (or α < 5%). We used the same data and program as in the online supplement to the Zechar and Jordan (2008) paper.