Fig. 6.

Retrospective forecasts for the testing region “All Japan.” The top, middle, and bottom rows correspond to the 3-year (a, b, c, d), 1-year (e, f, g, h), and 3-month (i, j, k, l) classes. The four columns correspond to smoothing parameters of S = 10 (a, e, i), 30 (b, f, j), 50 (c, g, k), and 100 km (d, h, l), respectively, from left to right. The maps show color contours (in logarithm) of the cumulative number (θ _i ) of 5 ≤ M ≤ 9 forecast events for the 3-year and 1-year classes and 4 ≤ M ≤ 9 events for the 3-month class. The squares indicate the 168 earthquakes of M ≥ 5 that actually happened between 1 February 2006 and 31 January 2009 in the top row panels, the 78 earthquakes of the same magnitude range between 1 February 2008 and 31 January 2009 in the middle row panels, and the 112 M ≥ 4 earthquakes between 1 November 2008 and 31 January 2009 in the bottom row panels.