Fig. 10.

Effect of stress shadow and its time-dependency in our forecasting model. (a) ΔCFFs caused by the large earthquakes in western Hokkaido and northern Honshu islands. The numbers are occurrence years of the earthquakes. (b) Differences between the expected numbers of M ≥ 5 earthquakes by considering and by not considering the stress perturbations (the matrix of Fig. 9(c)-the matrix of Fig. 9(a)). Note that stress shadow effects in particular due to the 1964 Niigata earthquake are significant but they diminish as a function of elapsed time since the occurrence of the mainshock.