Fig. 8
From: Statistical forecasts and tests for small interplate repeating earthquakes along the Japan Trench
L-test for 365 forecast probabilities of three trials produced by the LN-Bayes model. The curved line denotes the theoretical distribution of the total log-likelihood, LL, and the vertical dashed line denotes its observed score. The horizontal lines indicate the points of 0.05 and 0.95 of the cumulative probability used for testing. Ns is the number of forecasts.