Statistical forecasts and tests for small interplate repeating earthquakes along the Japan Trench

Earth, Planets and Space

Table 2 Fundamental values of forecasts and consistency scores of the probabilities for 12 months.

		Forecast period
		2006.7–07.6	2008.1–08.12	2009.1–09.12	2010.1–10.12	Total
Forecast sequences		93	127	145	163	528
Qualifying events		51	56	70		177
Analysis for forecast
Data period		1993/1–06/6	1993/1–07/12	1993/1–08/12	1993/1–09/12
SREs		671	912	1075	1239
Model		Score/Verification
LN-Bayes	E(N)	41.4 UD	56.1 AC	61.2 AC		158.7 UD
	MLL	−0.519 AC	−0.531 AC	−0.647 RJ		−0.574 AC
	BS	0.177 AC	0.178 AC	0.228 RJ		0.197 AC
LN-SST	E(N)	39.4 RJ	53.7 AC	58.0 UD		151.1 RJ
	MLL	−0.526 AC	−0.497 AC	−0.678 RJ		−0.576 UD
	BS	0.182 AC	0.167 AC	0.235 RJ		0.198 RJ
Exp	E(N)	39.7 UD	49.9 AC	55.4 RJ		145.0 RJ
	MLL	−0.669 AC	−0.638 AC	−0.696 UD		−0.669 AC
	BS	0.238 AC	0.223 AC	0.251 UD		0.238 AC

Remarks: E(N) is the expectation of sequences with qualifying events, MLL is the mean log-likelihood score, and BS is the Brier score. Here, AC indicates that the score is accepted by N-, L-, or BS-test at a significance level of 0.95; RJ indicates that it is rejected at the 0.99 level; and UD indicates that it is rejected at the 0.95 level but accepted at the 0.99 level.