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Table 2 Fundamental values of forecasts and consistency scores of the probabilities for 12 months.

From: Statistical forecasts and tests for small interplate repeating earthquakes along the Japan Trench

   Forecast period
   2006.7–07.6 2008.1–08.12 2009.1–09.12 2010.1–10.12 Total
Forecast sequences 93 127 145 163 528
Qualifying events 51 56 70   177
Analysis for forecast
Data period 1993/1–06/6 1993/1–07/12 1993/1–08/12 1993/1–09/12  
SREs 671 912 1075 1239  
Model   Score/Verification
LN-Bayes E(N) 41.4 UD 56.1 AC 61.2 AC   158.7 UD
  MLL −0.519 AC −0.531 AC −0.647 RJ   −0.574 AC
  BS 0.177 AC 0.178 AC 0.228 RJ   0.197 AC
LN-SST E(N) 39.4 RJ 53.7 AC 58.0 UD   151.1 RJ
  MLL −0.526 AC −0.497 AC −0.678 RJ   −0.576 UD
  BS 0.182 AC 0.167 AC 0.235 RJ   0.198 RJ
Exp E(N) 39.7 UD 49.9 AC 55.4 RJ   145.0 RJ
  MLL −0.669 AC −0.638 AC −0.696 UD   −0.669 AC
  BS 0.238 AC 0.223 AC 0.251 UD   0.238 AC
  1. Remarks: E(N) is the expectation of sequences with qualifying events, MLL is the mean log-likelihood score, and BS is the Brier score. Here, AC indicates that the score is accepted by N-, L-, or BS-test at a significance level of 0.95; RJ indicates that it is rejected at the 0.99 level; and UD indicates that it is rejected at the 0.95 level but accepted at the 0.99 level.