From: Long term probability of a Magnitude 8 Kanto earthquake along the Sagami Trough, central Japan
Ishibashi (1994) | Shishikura (2003) | Shimazaki et al. (2011b) | Weighted log-likelihood | |
---|---|---|---|---|
878/Nov./1 | â—¯ | â—¯ | â—¯ | |
1293/May/27 | â—¯ | â—¯ | â—¯ | â—¯ |
1433/Nov./6 | â—¯ | â—¯ | ||
1703/Dec./31 | â—¯ | â—¯ | â—¯ | â—¯ |
1923/Sept./1 | â—¯ | â—¯ | â—¯ | â—¯ |
BPT optimal values | ||||
µ | 261.21 | 348.28 | 315.14 | 302.70 |
α | 0.40 | 0.31 | 0.32 | 0.38 |
AIC | ||||
Poisson | 54.52 | 43.12 | 29.01 | 42.28 |
BPT optimal case | 51.68 | 40.09 | 27.81 | 40.46 |
Δ AIC | 2.84 | 3.03 | 1.20 | 1.82 |
Δ AIC/2 | 1.42 | 1.52 | 0.60 | 0.91 |
Log-likelihood | ||||
Poisson | −26.26 | −20.56 | −13.51 | −20.14 |
BPT optimal case | −23.84 | −18.05 | −11.91 | −18.23 |
Δl | −2.42 | −2.52 | −1.60 | −1.91 |