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Table 1 Historical earthquake sequences used in the study. The optimal BPT parameters are listed in the second set. The AlC’s values for the optimal case and the Poisson model are in the third set. The difference in AIC, specifically the AIC of the Poisson minus that of the optimal BPT, is also given. Values of log-likelihood for the Poisson and the optimal BPT are listed in the bottom set. At the bottom, Δl refers to a value of the log-likelihood of the Poisson minus that of the optimal BPT.

From: Long term probability of a Magnitude 8 Kanto earthquake along the Sagami Trough, central Japan

 

Ishibashi (1994)

Shishikura (2003)

Shimazaki et al. (2011b)

Weighted log-likelihood

878/Nov./1

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1293/May/27

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1433/Nov./6

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1703/Dec./31

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â—¯

â—¯

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1923/Sept./1

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BPT optimal values

µ

261.21

348.28

315.14

302.70

α

0.40

0.31

0.32

0.38

AIC

Poisson

54.52

43.12

29.01

42.28

BPT optimal case

51.68

40.09

27.81

40.46

Δ AIC

2.84

3.03

1.20

1.82

Δ AIC/2

1.42

1.52

0.60

0.91

Log-likelihood

Poisson

−26.26

−20.56

−13.51

−20.14

BPT optimal case

−23.84

−18.05

−11.91

−18.23

Δl

−2.42

−2.52

−1.60

−1.91