Table 2 Probability of an M 8 earthquake in the next 30 years for various cases. Probabilities listed in the first row indicate those for the optimal BPT cases. Probabilities averaged with weighting down to Δl = −2 at every 0.5 step are given in the following lines.
From: Long term probability of a Magnitude 8 Kanto earthquake along the Sagami Trough, central Japan
Ishibashi | Shishikura | Shimazaki et al. | Weighted log-likelihood | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Optimal case loge (weight) | 0.027 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.007 |
0 ∼ −0.5 | 0.041 | 0.002 | 0.011 | 0.020 |
0 ∼ −1 | 0.050 | 0.007 | 0.024 | 0.031 |
0 ∼ −1.5 | 0.056 | 0.012 | 0.036 | 0.040 |
0 ∼ −2 | 0.060 | 0.019 | 0.045 | 0.046 |
Poisson | 0.109 | 0.082 | 0.091 | 0.094 |