Table 5 Same as in Table 1 for “Kanto”.
From: CSEP Testing Center and the first results of the earthquake forecast testing experiment in Japan
Kanto | L-test | N-test | M-test | S-test | Forecast number | Forec / Obs in number | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Model | γ | δ1 | δ2 | κ | ζ | ||
HIST-ETAS5pa | 0.072 | 0.284 | 0.801 | 0.268 | 0.000 | 11.67 | 0.83 |
HIST-ETAS7pa | 0.086 | 0.287 | 0.798 | 0.273 | 0.000 | 11.70 | 0.84 |
RI10k | 0.050 | 0.023 | 0.989 | 0.376 | 0.934 | 7.57 | 0.54 |
RI30k | 0.019 | 0.023 | 0.989 | 0.338 | 0.164 | 7.57 | 0.54 |
RI50k | 0.019 | 0.023 | 0.989 | 0.322 | 0.005 | 7.57 | 0.54 |
RI100k | 0.008 | 0.023 | 0.989 | 0.365 | 0.000 | 7.57 | 0.54 |
Triple-S-Japan | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.731 | 0.968 | 37.38 | 2.67 |
RANDOM | 0.437 | 0.536 | 0.570 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 14.00 | 1.00 |