Figure 6
From: Combining earthquake forecasts using differential probability gains
Expected rate distributions of EAST ∗EEPAS and EAST R + EEPAS models. (a) Cumulative distribution functions of the rate values (black for EAST ∗EEPAS and magenta for EAST R+EEPAS). Note the logarithmic scale. Dots show the rates in the space-time region where target earthquakes have occurred during the quasi-prospective test from July 2009 to December 2011. Linear-scale (b) and logarithmic-scale (c) rates of the EAST ∗EEPAS model with respect to rates of the EAST R+EEPAS model in space-time regions where target earthquakes have occurred. Open circles correspond to the entire CSEP testing region; black dots correspond to the reduced region that does not include off-coast and outside USA areas (Shebalin et al. 2011). The x=y line is shown for direct comparison. The curves in (a) are left-truncated at a rate of 10−5 per 3 months. The EAST ∗EEPAS model has remarkably higher rate values in the limit of large rate (b). These higher rates are compensated in the model by lower rates in the limit of small rate.