Skip to main content
Earth, Planets and Space
Download PDF

Effects of zonation on the results of the application of the regional time predictable seismicity model in Greece and Japan

Earth, Planets and Space volume 52, pages 221–228 (2000)Cite this article

Abstract

Recent work on time dependent seismicity is mainly based on the so-called “regional time predictable model”, which is expressed by the relation:

where Tt is the interevent time, i.e. the time between two successive mainshocks of a seismogenic region, and Mp is the magnitude of the precedent mainshock. Parameter a is a function of the magnitude of the minimum earthquake considered and of the tectonic loading and c is a positive (≈0.3) constant. A problem of the method, as it has been applied till now, is its dependence on the zonation, that is, on the definition of the seismogenic regions, which is subjective to some extent. In the present work a different approach, which assumes no a-priori regionalization of the area, is attempted in order to check the validity of the model. Grids of equally spaced points at 0.5° have been created for Greece and Japan and the mainshocks located within each circle with center at a point and radius varying between 30 and 150 km were considered. When the number of mainshocks within the circle was four or larger, regression was performed and the c value was calculated. In about 75% of the cases for Greece with sufficient data and 80% for Japan the parameter c was found to be positive. This result strongly supports the validity of the model.

References

  • Abe, K., Magnitudes of large earthquakes from 1904 to 1980, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 27, 72–93, 1981.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ambraseys, N. N., Temporal seismic quiescence: SE Turkey, Geophys. J., 96, 311–331, 1989.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ando, M., Source mechanisms and tectonic significance of historical earthquakes along the Nankai Trough, Japan, Tectonophys., 27, 119–140, 1975.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kagan, Y. Y. and D. D. Jackson, Seismic gap hypothesis: Ten years after, J. Geophys. Res., 96, 21419–21431, 1991.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Karakaisis, G. F., M. C. Kourouzidis, and B. C. Papazachos, Behaviour of seismic activity during a single seismic cycle, in Proc. Intern. Conf. Earthquake Prediction: State-of-the-Art, Strasbourg, 15–18 October 1991, France, pp. 47–54, 1991.

  • McGuire, R. K. and J. Barnhard, Effects of temporal variations in seismicity on seismic hazards, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 71, 321–334, 1981.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mogi, K., Earthquake Prediction, 355 pp., Academic Press, Tokyo, 1985.

    Google Scholar 

  • Molnar, P., Earthquake recurrence intervals and plate tectonics, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 69, 115–133, 1979.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pacheco, J. F. and L. R. Sykes, Seismic moment catalog of large shallow earthquakes, 1900 to 1989, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 82, 1306–1349, 1992.

    Google Scholar 

  • Papazachos, B. C., A time-predictable model for earthquakes in Greece, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 79, 77–84, 1989.

    Google Scholar 

  • Papazachos, B. C. and Ch. A. Papaioannou, Long-term earthquake prediction in the Aegean area based on a time and magnitude predictable model, Pure Appl. Geophys., 140, 593–612, 1993.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Papazachos, B. C. and Ch. A. Papaioannou, Seismic hazard in Greece based on new seismotectonic data, in Abstracts IASPEI 29th General Assembly, Thessaloniki, 18–28 August 1997, p. 294, 1997.

  • Papazachos, B. C. and C. B. Papazachou, The Earthquakes of Greece, 304 pp., Ziti Publications, Thessaloniki, 1997.

    Google Scholar 

  • Papazachos, B. C., E. E. Papadimitriou, G. F. Karakaisis, and T. M. Tsapanos, An application of the time- and magnitude-predictable model for the long-term earthquake prediction of strong shallow earthquakes in the Japan area, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 84, 426–437, 1994.

    Google Scholar 

  • Papazachos, B. C., E. E. Papadimitriou, G. F. Karakaisis, and D. G. Panagiotopoulos, Long-term earthquake prediction in the circum-Pacific convergent belt, Pure Appl. Geophys., 149, 173–217, 1997a.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Papazachos, B. C., G. F. Karakaisis, E. E. Papadimitriou, and Ch. A. Papaioannou, The regional time and magnitude predictable model and its application to the Alpine-Himalayan belt, Tectonophys., 271, 295–323,. 1997b.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Papazachos, B. C., G. F. Karakaisis, and P. M. Hatzidimitriou, Time dependent seismicity in Greece, in Abstracts IASPEI 29th General Assembly, Thessaloniki, 18–28 August 1997, p. 78, 1997c.

  • Papazachos, C. B. and E. E. Papadimitriou, Evaluation of the global applicability of the time and magnitude predictable seismicity model, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 87, 799–808, 1997.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rikitake, T., Recurrence of great earthquakes at subduction zones, Tectonophys., 35, 335–362, 1976.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rikitake, T., Current Research in Earthquake Prediction I, 383 pp., Reidel Publ. Co., Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 1982.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shimazaki, K. and T. Nakata, Time-predictable recurrence model for large earthquakes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 7, 279–282, 1980.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Suzuki, S. and A. S. Kiremidjan, A random slip rate model for earthquake occurrences with Bayesian parameters, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 81, 781–795, 1991.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tsapanos, T. M., E. M. Scordilis, and B. C. Papazachos, A Global Catalogue of Strong Earthquakes, 90 pp., Publ. Geophys. Lab., Univ. of Thessaloniki, 1990.

  • Utsu, T., A catalogue of large earthquakes (M > 6) and damaging earthquakes in Japan for the years 1885–1925, in Historical Seismograms and Earthquakes of the World, edited by W. H. K. Lee, H. Meyers, and K. Shimazaki, pp. 150–161, Academic Press, London, 1988.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Geophysical Laboratory, University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, 54006, Greece

    G. F. Karakaisis

Authors
  1. G. F. Karakaisis
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to G. F. Karakaisis.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Karakaisis, G.F. Effects of zonation on the results of the application of the regional time predictable seismicity model in Greece and Japan. Earth Planet Sp 52, 221–228 (2000). https://doi.org/10.1186/BF03351630

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/BF03351630

Keywords

  • Seismic Hazard
  • Strong Earthquake
  • Seismic Moment
  • Shallow Earthquake
  • Multilinear Regression