Skip to main content

Advertisement

We’d like to understand how you use our websites in order to improve them. Register your interest.

Numerical simulation of volcanic plume dispersal from Usu volcano in Japan on 31 March 2000 using PUFF model

Abstract

In this study, a volcanic ash tracking model called “PUFF” is applied to the actual eruption of Usu volcano on 31 March 2000 in order to infer the movement of airborne ash clouds for aviation safety. The PUFF model was developed and operated by the Alaska Volcano Observatory since the eruption of Redoubt volcano in 1989. The performance of the PUFF model is examined in this study based on the ground truth of the observed distribution of tephra on the ground. According to the model simulation, the ash plume erupted from Usu volcano first moved eastward for the New Chitose International Airport. As the upper air westerly wind gradually shifted to southerly wind, the ash front traveled from Chitose to Nemuro while the subsequent eruption plume directed toward the northeast over Sapporo area. The vertical cross sections and 3-D perspective image of the ash clouds are presented as a function of time. The model simulation was justified by the agreement between the modeled and observed distributions of tephra on the ground. The PUFF model with accurate wind information can simulate the location and the direction of the moving airborne ash cloud on a realtime basis, which may provide crucial information to aviation industry.

References

  1. Akasofu, S.-I. and H. L. Tanaka, Urgent issue of developing volcanic ash tracking model, Kagaku Asahi, 5, 121–124, 1993 (in Japanese).

  2. Armienti, P. and G. Macedonio, A numerical model for simulation of tephra transport and deposition: Application to May 18, 1980, Mount St. Helens eruption, J. Geophys. Res., 93, 6463–6476, 1988.

  3. Burden, R. L., J. D. Faires, and A. C. Reynolds, Numerical Analysis, 598 pp., Prindle, Weber and Schmidt, 1981.

  4. Casadevall, T. L., The 1989–1990 eruption of Redoubt volcano, Alaska: Impacts on aircraft operations, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 62, 301–316, 1994.

  5. Chatfield, C., The Analysis of Time Series: An Introduction, 286 pp., Chapman and Hall, 1975.

  6. Dean, K. G., S. I. Akasofu, and H. L. Tanaka, Volcanic hazards and aviation safety: Developing techniques in Alaska, FAA Aviation Safety Journal, 3(1), 11–15, 1993.

  7. Endoh, K., M. Ohno, M. Kunikita, M. Morohoshi, M. Suzuki, Y. Nishimura, D. Nagai, T. Chiba, and I. Tohno, Pheatomagmatic explosions of the 2000 eruption of Usu volcano, Natural Science Reports, Nihon University, 36, 65–73, 2001 (in Japanese).

  8. Fukui, T., Assessment of wind error in GPV/JMA prediction model used for the volcanic plume tracking model PUFF, Graduation Thesis, Natural Science, University of Tsukuba, 70 pp., 2002.

  9. Glaze, L. S. and S. Self, Ashfall dispersal for the 16 September 1986, eruption of Lascar, Chile, calculated by a turbulent diffusion model, Geophys. Res. Let., 18, 1237–1240, 1991.

  10. Heffter, J. L. and B. J. B. Stunder, Volcanic ash forecast transport and dispersion (VAFTAD) model, Computer Techniques, 8, 533–541, 1993.

  11. Hobbs, P. V., L. F. Radke, J. H. Lyons, R. J. Ferek, D. J. Coffman, and T. J. Casadevall, Airborne measurements of particle and gas emissions from the 1990 volcanic eruption of Mount Redoubt, J. Geophys. Res., 96, 18735–18752, 1991.

  12. Hurst, A. W. and R. Turner, Performance of the program ASHFALL for forecasting ashfall during the 1995 and 1996 eruptions of Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand, J. Geol. Geophys., 42, 615–622, 1999.

  13. Kai, K., Y. Okada, O. Uchino, I. Tabata, H. Nakamura, T. Takasugi, and Y. Nikaidou, Lidar observation and numerical simulation of Kosa (Asian Dust) over Tsukuba, Japan, during the spring of 1986, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 66, 457–472, 1988.

  14. Kienle, J., A. W. Woods, S. A. Estes, K. Ahlnaes, K. G. Dean, and H. L. Tanaka, Satellite and slow-scan television observations of the rise and dispersion of ash-rich eruption clouds from Redoubt volcano, Alaska, EOS, 72(2), 748–750, 1991.

  15. Onodera, S., Volcanic activity and flight operations, Aviation Meteorological Notes, 45, 13–30, 1997.

  16. Praham, L. P. and O. Christensen, Long-range transmission of pollutant simulated by a two-dimensional pseudo spectral dispersion model, J. Appl. Meteor., 16, 896–910, 1977.

  17. Sawada, Y., The detection capability of explosive eruptions using GMS imagery, and the behavior of dispersing eruption clouds, IVAVCEI, in Proceedings in Volcanology 1, edited by J. H. Latter, pp. 233–245, Volcanic Hazards, Springer-Erlag Berlin Heidelberg, 1989.

  18. Searcy, C., K. Dean, and B. Stringer, PUFF: A volcanic ash tracking and prediction model, J. Volc. Geophys. Res., 80, 1–16, 1998.

  19. Suck, S. H., E. C. Upchurch, and J. R. Brock, Dust transport in Maricopa county, Arizona, Atmos. Environ., 12, 2265–2271, 1978.

  20. Tanaka, H. L., Development of a prediction scheme for the volcanic ash fall from Redoubt volcano, First Int’l. Symp. on Volcanic Ash and Aviation Safety, Seattle, Washington, U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1065:58, 1991.

  21. Tanaka, H. L., Development of a prediction scheme for volcanic ash fall from Redoubt volcano, Alaska, Proc. First International Symposium on Volcanic Ash and Aviation Safety, U.S. Geological Survey, Bulletin 2047, 283–291, 1994.

  22. Tanaka, H. L., K. G. Dean, and S. I. Akasofu, Predicting the movement of volcanic ash clouds, EOS, 74(20), 231–231, 1993.

  23. Tokyo Aviation Weather Service Center, Volcanic ash advisory service, Japan Meteorological Agency, Geophys. Maga. Ser. 2, 4, 1–4, 2001.

  24. Turner, R. and T. Hurst, Factors influencing volcanic ash dispersal from the 1995 and 1996 eruptions of Mount Ruapehu, New Zealand, J. Appl. Meteor., 40, 56–69, 2001.

  25. Yamagata, S., Development of volcanic plume prediction scheme for aviation safety, Graduation Thesis, Natural Science, University of Tsukuba, 136 pp., 1993.

  26. Yamamoto. K., Numerical experiment of the volcanic ash cloud dispersion and the justification by satellite image, Graduation Thesis, Natural Science, University of Tsukuba, 87 pp., 2000.

  27. Yamamoto, K., Numerical experiments and the assessment for the probability of the volcanic ash dispersal, Master thesis, Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, 70 pp., 2002.

Download references

Author information

Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to H. L. Tanaka.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Tanaka, H.L., Yamamoto, K. Numerical simulation of volcanic plume dispersal from Usu volcano in Japan on 31 March 2000 using PUFF model. Earth Planet Sp 54, 743–752 (2002). https://doi.org/10.1186/BF03351727

Download citation

Keywords

  • Tephra
  • Japan Meteorological Agency
  • Volcanic Plume
  • Perspective Image
  • Aviation Safety