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Sunspot variability and an attempt to predict solar cycle 23 by adaptive filtering

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Abstract

The series of annual mean relative sunspot numbers (Rz) for 1749–1996 is subjected to the recently developed methodology of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). This technique also enables data-adaptive filtering of the individual spectral components. Low order autoregressive modelling of the components are combined to provide a basis for predicting the solar cycle 23.

The Rz series is largely dominated by a doublet with periods 11.13 and 10.35 yr. close to the nominal solar cycle periodicity, a longer period variation (~110 yr.) which is the envelope of the amplitude maxima and two clusters of periodicities centred around 8 yr. and 5.5 yr. The solar magnetic cycle has no detectable component. The predicted maximum for cycle 23 will have a magnitude of ~130 and the epoch of maximum is expected between late 2000 A.D. and early 2001 A.D.

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Correspondence to G. K. Rangarajan.

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Rangarajan, G.K. Sunspot variability and an attempt to predict solar cycle 23 by adaptive filtering. Earth Planet Sp 50, 91–100 (1998) doi:10.1186/BF03352090

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Keywords

  • Solar Activity
  • Solar Cycle
  • Sunspot Number
  • Maximum Entropy Method
  • Solar Physic