Skip to main content
Earth, Planets and Space
Download PDF
  • Article
  • Published:

Prediction of recurrent geomagnetic disturbances by using adaptive filtering

Earth, Planets and Space volume 50, pages 839–845 (1998)Cite this article

Abstract

Recurrent geomagnetic disturbances are an important part of geomagnetic activities, which are associated with the neutral sheet structure in the heliosphere and the activities of long lived solar coronal holes. Another significant character is the periodic activities recorded by geomagnetic indices. In this paper an algorithm—Adaptive Filtering (AF), is introduced to forecast recurrent geomagnetic events based on the geomagnetic K index. Adaptive filtering can deal with nonstationary data and can adapt to changes in the data pattern. Therefore it is a very helpful method for forecasting the geomagnetic disturbances and the disturbances in the interplanetary space. By using AF technique a prediction for whole Bartels rotation can be obtained when output length is taken as 27-point. For recurrent periods the prediction efficiency is about 30%, the correlation coefficient is 0.55. For nonrecurrent periods the prediction efficiency and correlation coefficient decrease obviously, but the standard variance does not change very much.

References

  • Akasofu, S.-I. and C. Fry, A first generation numerical geomagnetic storm prediction scheme, Planet. Space Sci., 34(1), 77–92, 1986.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bame, S. J., J. R. Asbridge, W. C. Feldman, and J. T. Gosling, Solar cycle evolution of high-speed solar wind streams, Astrophys. J., 207(3), 977–980, 1976.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bartels, J., Terrestrial magnetic activity and its relations to solar phenomena, J. Geophys. Res., 37(1), 1–52, 1932.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bartels, J., Twenty-seven day recurrencies in terrestrial-magnetic and solar activity, 1923–1933, J. Geophys. Res., 39(1), 201–202, 1934.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Box, G. E. P. and G. M. Jenkins, Time-Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, Holden-Day, San Francisco, 1976.

    Google Scholar 

  • Burlaga, L. F. and R. P. Lepping, The causes of recurrent geomagnetic storms, Planet. Space Sci., 25(12), 1151–1160, 1977.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chao, J. K. and R. P. Lepping, A correlative study of SSC’s, Interplanetary shocks, and Solar activity, J. Geophys. Res., 79(3), 1799–1807, 1974.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clauer, R., R. L. McPherron, and C. Searls, Solar wind control of the low latitude asymmetric magnetic disturbance field, J. Geophys. Res., 88(A4), 2123–2130, 1983.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Crooker, N. U. and E. W. Cliver, Postmodern view of M-regions, J. Geophys. Res., 99(A12), 23383–23390, 1994.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eselevich, V. G., Solar flares: Geoeffectiveness and the possibility of a new classification, Planet. Space Sci., 38(2), 189–206, 1990.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fenimore, E. E., J. R. Asbridge, S. J. Bame, W. C. Feldman, and J. T. Gosling, The power spectrum of the solar wind speed for periods greater than 10 days, J. Geophys. Res., 83(A9), 4353–4357, 1978.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Freeman, J., A. Nagai, P. Reiff, W. Denig, S. Gussenhoven-Shea, M. Heinemann, F. Rich, and M. Hairston, The use of neural networks to predict magnetospheric parameters for input to a magnetospheric forecast model, in Proceedings of Artificial Intelligence Applications in Solar-Terrestrial Physics Workshop in Lund Sweden, September 22–24, 1993, edited by J. A. Joselyn, H. Lundstedt, and J. Trollinger, pp. 167–174, 1993.

  • Gosling, J. T., E. Hildner, R. M. MacQueen, R. H. Munro, A. I. Poland, and C. L. Ross, Direct observations of a flare related coronal and solar wind disturbance, Solar Phys., 40(2), 439–448, 1975.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gosling, J. T., S. J. Bame, D. J. McComas, and J. L. Phillips, Coronal mass ejections (CME) and large geomagnetic storms, Geophys. Res. Lett., 17(7), 901–904, 1990.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hansen, R. T., S. F. Hansen, and C. Sawyer, Long-lived coronal structure and recurrent geomagnetic patterns in 1974, Planet. Space Sci., 24(4), 381–388, 1976.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Iyemori, T., H. Maeda, and T. Kamei, Impulse response of geomagnetic indices to interplanetary magnetic field, J. Geomag. Geoelectr., 31(1), 1–9, 1979.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jacobsen, B., P. E. Sandholt, B. Lybekk, and A. Egeland, Transient auroral events near midday: Relationship with solar wind/magnetosheath, J. Geophys. Res., 96(A2), 1327–1336, 1991.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Joselyn, J. A., Real-time prediction of global geomagnetic activity, in Solar Wind-Magnetosphere Coupling, edited by Y. Kamide and J. A. Slavin, pp. 127–138, Terra, Tokyo, Japan, 1986.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Lundstedt, H., An inductive expert system for solar-terrestrial predictions, in Proceeding of Solar-Terrestrial Prediction Workshop, pp. 126–129, Leura, Australia, 1989.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lundstedt, H., Neural network and prediction of solar-terrestrial effects, Planet. Space Sci., 40 (4), 457–464, 1992.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Makridakis, S. and S. C. Wheelwright, Adaptive filtering: an integrated autoregressive/moving average filter for series forecasting, Oper. Res. Quarterly, 28(2,ii), 425–437, 1977.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marubashi, K., The space weather forecast program, Space Sci. Rev., 51(1/2), 197–214, 1989.

    Google Scholar 

  • McPherron, R. L., R. A. Fay, C. R. Garrity, L. F. Bargatze, D. N. Baker, C. R. Clauer, and C. Searls, Coupling of the solar wind to measures of magnetic activity, in Proc. Conf. Achievement of the IMS, Graz. Austria, ESA SP-217, pp. 161–170, 1984.

  • Mursula, K. and B. Zieger, The 13.5-day periodicity in the Sun, solar wind, and geomagnetic activity: The last three solar cycles, J. Geophys. Res., 101(A12), 27077–27090, 1996.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Neupert, W. M. and V. Pizzo, Solar coronal holes as sources of recurrent geomagnetic disturbances, J. Geophys. Res., 79(25), 3701–3709, 1974.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sargent, H. H., III, The 27-day recurrence index, in Solar Wind-Magnetosphere Coupling, edited by Y. Kamide and J. A. Slavin, pp. 143–154, Terra, Tokyo, Japan, 1986.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Schwenn, R., Relationship of coronal transients to interplanetary shocks: 3D aspects, Space Sci. Rev., 44(1/2), 139–168, 1986.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sheeley, N. R., Jr., J. W. Harvey, and W. C. Feldman, Coronal holes, solar wind streams, and recurrent geomagnetic disturbances 1973–1976, Sol. Phys., 49(2), 271–278, 1976.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith, E. J., J. A. Slavin, R. D. Zwickl, and S. J. Bame, Shocks and storm sudden commencements, in Solar Wind-Magnetosphere Coupling, edited by Y. Kamide and J. A. Slavin, pp. 345–357, Terra, Tokyo, Japan, 1986.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Tang, F., B. T. Tsurutani, W. D. Gonzalez, S.-I. Akasofu, and E. J. Smith, Solar sources of interplanetary southward Bz events responsible for major magnetic storms (1978-1979), J. Geophys. Res., 94(A4), 3535–3541, 1989.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tsurutani, B. T., B. E. Glodstein, E. J. Smith, W. D. Gonzalez, F. Tang, S.-I. Akasofu, and R. R. Anderson, The interplanetary and solar causes of geomagnetic activity, Planet. Space Sci., 38(1), 109–126, 1990.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilson, R. M., Geomagnetic response to magnetic clouds, Planet. Space Sci., 35(3), 329–335, 1987.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilson, R. M. and E. Hildner, On the association of magnetic clouds with disappearing filaments, J. Geophys. Res., 91(A5), 5867–5872, 1986.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu, J.-G. and H. Lundstedt, Prediction of geomagnetic storms from solar wind data using Elman recurrent neural networks, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23(4), 319–322, 1996.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, P.R. China

    X. -Y. Zhou

  2. Center for Space Science and Applied Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100080, P.R. China

    F. -S. Wei

Authors
  1. X. -Y. Zhou
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. F. -S. Wei
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to X. -Y. Zhou.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Zhou, X.Y., Wei, F.S. Prediction of recurrent geomagnetic disturbances by using adaptive filtering. Earth Planet Sp 50, 839–845 (1998). https://doi.org/10.1186/BF03352177

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/BF03352177

Keywords