Skip to main content
Earth, Planets and Space
Download PDF

Probability of a great earthquake to recur in the Tokai district, Japan: reevaluation based on newly-developed paleoseismology, plate tectonics, tsunami study, micro-seismicity and geodetic measurements

Earth, Planets and Space volume 51, pages 147–157 (1999)Cite this article

Abstract

In light of newly-acquired geophysical information about earthquake generation in the Tokai area, Central Japan, where occurrence of a great earthquake of magnitude 8 or so has recently been feared, probabilities of earthquake occurrence in the near future are reevaluated. Much of the data used for evaluation here relies on recently-developed paleoseismology, tsunami study and GPS geodesy.

The new Weibull distribution analysis of recurrence tendency of great earthquakes in the Tokai-Nankai zone indicates that the mean return period of great earthquakes there is estimated as 109 yr with a standard deviation amounting to 33 yr. These values do not differ much from those of previous studies (Rikitake, 1976, 1986; Utsu, 1984).

Taking the newly-determined velocities of the motion of Philippine Sea plate at various portions of the Tokai-Nankai zone into account, the ultimate displacements to rupture at the plate boundary are obtained. A Weibull distribution analysis results in the mean ultimate displacement amounting to 4.70 m with a standard deviation estimated as 0.86 m. A return period amounting to 117 yr is obtained at the Suruga Bay portion by dividing the mean ultimate displacement by the relative plate velocity.

With the aid of the fault models as determined from the tsunami studies, the increases in the cumulative seismic slips associated with the great earthquakes are examined at various portions of the zone. It appears that a slip-predictable model can better be applied to the occurrence mode of great earthquakes in the zone than a time-predictable model. The crustal strain accumulating over the Tokai area as estimated from the newly-developed geodetic work including the GPS observations is compared to the ultimate strain presumed by the above two models.

The probabilities for a great earthquake to recur in the Tokai district are then estimated with the aid of the Weibull analysis parameters obtained for the four cases discussed in the above. All the probabilities evaluated for the four cases take on values ranging 35–45 percent for a ten-year period following the year 2000.

References

  • Aida, I., A source model of the tsunami accompanying the Tonankai earthquake of 1944, Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst., Univ. Tokyo, 54, 329–341, 1979 (in Japanese).

    Google Scholar 

  • Aida, I., Numerical experiments of historical tsunamis generated off the coast of the Tokaido district, Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst., Univ. Tokyo, 56, 367–390, 1981a (in Japanese).

    Google Scholar 

  • Aida, I., Numerical experiments for the tsunamis generated off the coast of the Nankaido district, Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst., Univ. Tokyo, 56, 713–730, 1981b (in Japanese).

    Google Scholar 

  • Ando, M., A fault-origin model of the great Kanto earthquake of 1923 as deduced from geodetic data, Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst., Univ. Tokyo, 49, 19–32, 1971.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ando, M., Source mechanisms and tectonic significance of historical earthquakes along the Nankai trough, Japan, Tectonophysics, 27, 119–140, 1975.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ando, M., A fault model of the 1946 Nankaido earthquake derived from tsunami data, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 28, 320–336, 1982.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bufe, C. G., P. W. Harsh, and R. O. Burford, Steady-state seismic slip-a precise recurrence model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 4, 91–94, 1977.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fitch, T. J. and C. H. Scholz, Mechanism of underthrusting in southwest Japan: A model of convergent plate interactions, J. Geophys. Res., 76, 7260–7292, 1971.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Geogr. Sur. Inst., Horizontal strains in Tokai district, Rep. Coord. Comm. Earthq. Predict., 15, 103–105, 1976 (in Japanese).

    Google Scholar 

  • Geogr. Sur. Inst., Crustal deformations in the Tokai district, Rep. Coord. Comm. Earthq. Predict., 56, 346–366, 1996 (in Japanese).

    Google Scholar 

  • Inouchi, N. and H. Sato, Vertical crustal deformation accompanied with the Tonankai earthquake of 1944, Bull. Geogr. Sur. Inst., 21, 10–18, 1975.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ishibashi, K., Specification of a soon-to-occur seismic faulting in the Tokai district, central Japan, based upon seismotectonics, in Earthquake Prediction-An International Review, Maurice Ewing Series 4, pp. 297–344, Am. Geophys. Union, 1981.

  • Kanamori, H., Tectonic implication of the 1944 Tonankai and the 1946 Nankaido earthquakes, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 5, 129–139, 1972.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kato, T., High-angle reverse faulting associated with the 1946 Nankaido earthquake, Tectonophysics, 96, 31–44, 1983.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kato, T., Y. Kotake, T. Chahin, Y. Iimura, S. Miyazaki, T. Kanazawa, and K. Suyehiro, An estimate of the Philippine Sea plate motion derived from the global positioning system observation at Okino Torishima, Japan, J. Geod. Soc. Jpn., 42, 233–243, 1996.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kimata, F., Strain event in 1985–1987 in the Tokai region, Central Japan, J. Phys. Earth, 40, 585–599, 1992.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Matsuzaka, S., M. Tobita, Y. Nakahori, J. Amagi, and Y. Sugimoto, Detection of Philippine Sea plate motion by Very Long Baseline Interferometry, Geophys. Res. Lett., 18, 1417–1419, 1991.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miyashita, K., A model of plate convergence in southwest Japan, inferred from leveling data associated with the 1946 Nankaido earthquake, J. Phys. Earth, 35, 449–467, 1987.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nagoya University, Time series of baseline lengths at Tokai region by EDM in the period of 1978–1996/4, Rep. Coord. Comm. Earthq. Predict., 56, 370–372, 1996 (in Japanese).

    Google Scholar 

  • Natl. Res. Inst. Earth Sci. Disast. Prev., Focal zone of the next Tokai earthquake inferred from the seismic activity in the Philippine Sea slab, Rep. Coord. Comm. Earthq. Predict., 51, 498–505, 1994 (in Japanese).

    Google Scholar 

  • Rikitake, T., Statistics of ultimate strain of the earth’s crust and probability of earthquake occurrence, Tectonophysics, 26, 1–21, 1975.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rikitake, T., Recurrence of great earthquakes at subduction zones, Tectono-physics, 35, 335–362, 1976.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rikitake, T., Probability of a great earthquake to recur off the Pacific coast of Central Japan, Tectonophysics, 42, T43–T51, 1977.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rikitake, T., Active fault and crustal strain, Earthq. Predict. Res., 3, 167–189, 1983.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rikitake, T., Earthquake Precursors, 232 pp., Univ. Tokyo Press, 1986 (in Japanese).

  • Sangawa, A., Evidence of paleoearthquakes found out in some archaeological sites, J. Geogr., 99, 51–62, 1990 (in Japanese).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sangawa, A., Jishin Kokogaku (Seismological Archaeology), 251 pp., Chuo Koronsha, 1992 (in Japanese).

  • Sato, H., A study of horizontal movement of the earth crust associated with destructive earthquakes in Japan, Bull. Geogr. Sur. Inst., 19, 89–130, 1973.

    Google Scholar 

  • Seno, T., S. Stein, and A. E. Gripp, A model for the motion of the Philippine Sea plate consistent with NUVEL-1 and geological data, J. Geophys. Res., 98, 17941–17948, 1993.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shimazaki, K. and T. Nakata, Time-predictable recurrence model for large earthquakes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 7, 279–282, 1980.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sykes, L. R. and R. C. Quittmeyer, Repeat times of great earthquakes along simple plate boundaries, in Earthquake Prediction-An International Review, Maurice Ewing Series 4, pp. 217–247, Am. Geophys. Union, 1981.

  • Tada, T., Recent crustal movement (I) over the Tokai area, Debate about the Tokai Earthquake, Association for the Development of Earthquake Prediction, pp. 103–124, 1997 (in Japanese).

  • Utsu, T., Estimation of parameters for recurrence models of earthquakes, Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst., Univ. Tokyo, 59, 53–66, 1984.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Association for the Development of Earthquake Prediction, 1-5-18 Sarugaku-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 101-0064, Japan

    Tsuneji Rikitake

Authors
  1. Tsuneji Rikitake
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Tsuneji Rikitake.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Rikitake, T. Probability of a great earthquake to recur in the Tokai district, Japan: reevaluation based on newly-developed paleoseismology, plate tectonics, tsunami study, micro-seismicity and geodetic measurements. Earth Planet Sp 51, 147–157 (1999). https://doi.org/10.1186/BF03352219

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/BF03352219

Keywords

  • Return Period
  • Great Earthquake
  • Earthquake Occurrence
  • Fault Slip
  • Ultimate Strain