Open Access

Prediction of a geosynchronous electron environment with in situ magnetic field measurements

  • A. Tsutai1,
  • C. Mitsui1 and
  • T. Nagai1
Earth, Planets and Space201451:BF03352225

https://doi.org/10.1186/BF03352225

Received: 20 August 1998

Accepted: 28 December 1998

Published: 6 June 2014

Abstract

A new approach to predict the relativistic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit has been developed. Our prediction technique is based on a linear prediction filter with the input consisting of magnetic field variations at geosynchronous orbit for 6 consecutive days. The output is a prediction, made one day ahead, of the average daily flux of >2 MeV electrons. This technique was developed with data from GOES 7 for the period from January 1994 through April 1994. The technique’s performance was tested by comparing the output results with the fluxes observed for the period from May 1994 through May 1995. The results showed that the empirical technique using in situ magnetic field measurements provides reasonably accurate forecasts of the geosynchronous electron environment one day in advance.