Skip to main content
Earth, Planets and Space
Download PDF

Use of Kp index of geomagnetic activity in the forecast of solar activity

Earth, Planets and Space volume 51, pages 363–372 (1999)Cite this article

Abstract

It is well established that geomagnetic activity in the declining phase of a solar cycle is a useful precursor of the amplitude of the solar activity in the next cycle. In the present analysis, we show that the frequency of occurrence of Kp index with values (0–1) representing geomagnetic calm and with values between 4 and 7 representing moderate geomagnetic disturbances in the declining phase of a solar cycle is linearly related to the sunspot maximum of the next cycle. Highest correlations are obtained when the frequencies are averaged over three years preceding the solar minimum epochs. We also show that the frequency of occurrence of consecutive 4 or 6 intervals of Kp with the same magnitude (0–1 or 4–5) is also equally reliable as a predictor of the ensuing solar maximum. The rate of increase of sunspot number to the solar maximum and its subsequent rate of decline to the next minimum can also be predicted reliably with these frequencies. Based on the observations for 1993–1996, we expect the coming solar maximum to be associated with an annual mean sunspot number of about 140, with a rate of ascent of 35/year and a decline rate of about 25/year.

References

  • Brown, G. M., The peak of solar cycle 22: prediction in retrospect, Ann. Geophys., 10, 453–461, 1992.

    Google Scholar 

  • Feynman, J., Geomagnetic and solar wind cycles, 1900–1975, J. Geophys. Res., 87, 6153–6162, 1982.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hathaway, D. H., R. M. Wilson, and E. J. Reichmann, The shape of the sunspot cycle, Sol. Phys., 151, 177–190, 1994.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Joselyn, J. A., J. B. Anderson, H. Coffey, K. Harvey, D. Hathaway, G. Hackman, E. Hildner, W. Mende, K. Schatten, R. Thompson, A. W. P. Thompson, and O. R. White, Panel achieves consensus prediction of solar cycle 23, EOS Trans. AGU, 78 (20), 205, 211, 212, 1997.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kane, R. P. and N. B. Trivedi, Periodicities in sunspot numbers, J. Geomag. Geoelectr., 37, 1071–1085, 1985.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Legrand, J. P. and P. A. Simon, A two-component solar cycle, Sol. Phys., 131, 187–209, 1991.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li, Y., Predictions of the features for sunspot cycle 23, Sol. Phys., 170, 437–445, 1997.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nevanlinna, H. and E. Kataja, An extension of the geomagnetic activity index series aa for two solar cycles (1844-1868), Geophys. Res. Lett., 20, 2703–2706, 1993.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nordemann, D. J. R., Sunspot number time series: exponential fitting and solar behavior, Sol. Phys., 141, 199–202, 1992.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ohl, A. I., Physics of the 11 year variation of geomagnetic disturbances, Geomagn. Aeron., 11, 549–550, 1971.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rajmal Jain, Prediction of the amplitude of sunspot cycle 23, Sol. Phys., 176, 431–437, 1997.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rangarajan, G. K., Geomagnetic activity, sunspot number and its rate of increase, Proc. Indian Acad. Sci., 85(A), 71–74, 1977.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rangarajan, G. K., Sunspot variability and an attempt to predict solar cycle 23 by adaptive filtering, Earth Planets Space, 50, 91–100, 1998.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rangarajan, G. K. and T. Iyemori, Time variations of geomagnetic indices Kp and Ap: an update, Ann. Geophysicae, 15, 1271–1290, 1997.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schatten, K. H. and D. Hoyt, Solar cycle 23 forecast update, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 599–601, 1998.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schatten, K. H. and D. J. Myers, Solar activity forecast for solar cycle 23, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 605–608, 1996.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schatten, K. H., P. H. Scherrer, L. Svalgaard, and J. M. Wilcox, Using dynamo theory to predict the sunspot number during solar cycle 21, Geophys. Res. Lett., 5, 411–414, 1978.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Silbergleit, V. M., On the statistics of maximum sunspot numbers, J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys., 60, 1707–1710, 1998.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sofia, S., P. Fox, and K. H. Schatten, Forecast update for activity cycle 23 from a dynamo-based method, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 4149–4152, 1998.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thomson, R. J., A technique for predicting the amplitude of the solar cycle, Sol. Phys., 148, 383–388, 1993.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vautard, R., P. Yiou, and M. Ghil, Singular spectrum analysis: a toolkit for short, noisy chaotic signal, Physica, D58, 95–126, 1992.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilson, R. M., An early estimate for the size of cycle 23, Sol. Phys., 140, 181–193, 1992.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilson, R. M., D. H. Hathaway, and E. J. Reichmann, An estimate for the size of cycle based on near-minimum conditions, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 6595–6603, 1998a.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilson, R. M., D. H. Hathaway, and E. J. Reichmann, Estimating the size and timing of maximum amplitude for cycle 23 from its early cycle behavior, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 17411–17418, 1998b.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Observatorio Nacional, São Cristovao 20921-400, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

    G. K. Rangarajan & L. M. Barreto

Authors
  1. G. K. Rangarajan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. L. M. Barreto
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to G. K. Rangarajan.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Rangarajan, G.K., Barreto, L.M. Use of Kp index of geomagnetic activity in the forecast of solar activity. Earth Planet Sp 51, 363–372 (1999). https://doi.org/10.1186/BF03352240

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/BF03352240

Keywords