- Open Access
Complexity in the recurrence of large earthquakes in southwestern Japan: A simulation with an interacting fault system model
Earth, Planets and Space volume 53, pages249–259(2001)
Activity of large earthquakes in southwestern Japan is simulated with a model that incorporates mechanical interactions between faults, including both interplate and intraplate faults. In this simulation, each fault element is assumed to accumulate stress with a constant slip deficit rate and redistribute its accumulated stress to surrounding faults by making a forward (coseismic) slip when the cumulative stress reaches an assumed threshold. The results from the inversion of geodetic data by Hashimoto and Jackson (1993) were used to specify slip deficit rates for these faults. Each fault in this model is divided into four equal-sized elements, two in the length direction and two in the width direction, so that this model can simulate events as small as M6. A complex pattern of seismicity arises from a 10,000-year run of the simulation. The rate of stress accumulation is not necessarily constant for all faults, which may be attributed to the interaction between faults. It is interesting that fluctuations in the amplitude of stress changes with periods of 1,500 years or longer are seen for some inland faults. A variety of sizes of events occur according to the number of simultaneously rupturing elements. Smaller events in which only one element on a fault ruptures frequently occur, but large events with three or more rupturing elements are rarely seen. This implies that the difference between geodetic and geological/seismological strain rates might be made up by smaller events. Simulations indicate that two models with 1 initial conditions may separate by a factor of about 20∼30 in the state space after hundreds of years. The increase of this distance in the state space slows down or is linear in tome depending on initial conditions.
Ando, M., What should Japan do for the next Nankai earthquake?, in “The Nankai earthquake—prepared for the next great earthquake”, Chikyu (Earth Monthly), Special Issue, 24, 5–13, 1999 (in Japanese).
Bak, P. and C. Tang, Earthquakes as a self-organized critical phenomenon, J. Geophys. Res., 94, 15535–15537, 1989.
Burridge, R. and L. Knopoff, Model and theoretical seismicity, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 57, 341–371, 1967.
Carlson, J. M. and J. S. Langer, Mechanical model of an earthquake fault, Phys. Rev., A40, 6470–6484, 1989.
Harris, R. A. and R. W. Simpson, Changes in static stress on southern California faults after the 1992 Landers earthquake, Nature, 360, 251–254, 1992.
Hashimoto, M., Horizontal strain rates in the Japanese Islands during inter-seismic period deduced from geodetic surveys (Part I): Honshu, Shikoku and Kyushu, Zisin (J. Seism. Soc. Japan), Ser 2, 43, 13–26, 1990 (in Japanese with English abstract).
Hashimoto, M., Static stress changes associated with the Kobe earthquake: Calculation of changes in Coulomb failure function and comparison with seismicity change, Zisin (J. Seism. Soc. Japan), Ser. 2, 48, 521–530, 1995 (in Japanese with English abstract).
Hashimoto, M., Correction to “Static stress changes associated with the Kobe earthquake: Calculation of changes in Coulomb failure function and comparison with seismicity change”, Zisin (J. Seism. Soc. Japan), Ser. 2, 50, 21–27, 1997 (in Japanese with English abstract).
Hashimoto, M., Simulation of temporal variation in Coulomb failure functions in the source region of the Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake, Zisin (J. Seism. Soc. Japan), Ser. 2, 50, Suppl., 229–249, 1998a (in Japanese with English abstract).
Hashimoto, M., Simulation of activity of large earthquakes in and around the southwest Japan on the basis of slip deficit model, Annuals of Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto Univ., 41, B-1, 45–59, 1998b.
Hashimoto, M. and D. D. Jackson, Plate tectonics and crustal deformation around the Japanese islands, J. Geophys. Res., 98, 16149–16166, 1993.
Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, On the evaluation and survey results for Itoigawa—Shizuoka Tectonic Line fault zone, Report from the Headquarters for Earthq. Res. Promotion, 1997a (in Japanese).
Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, On the evaluation and survey results for Kan’nawa-Kouzu-Matsuda fault zone, Report from the Headquarters for Earthq. Res. Promotion, 1997b (in Japanese).
Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, On the evaluation and survey results for Fujikawa-kako fault zone, Report from the Headquarters for Earthq. Res. Promotion, 1998 (in Japanese).
Heki, K., S. Miyazaki, and H. Tsuji, Silent fault slip following an interplate thrust earthquake at the Japan trench, Nature, 386, 595–598, 1997.
Hori, T. and K. Oike, A statistical model of temporal variation of seismicity in the Inner Zone of southwest Japan related to the great interplate earthquakes along the Nankai trough, J. Phys. Earth, 44, 349–356, 1996.
Hori, T. and K. Oike, A physical mechanism for temporal variation in seismicity in the Inner Zone of southwest Japan related to the great interplate earthquakes along the Nankai trough, Tectonophys., 308, 83–98, 1999.
Huang, J. and D. L. Turcotte, Evidence for chaotic fault interactions in the seismicity of the San Andreas fault and Nankai trough, Nature, 348, 234–236, 1990.
Hudnut, K. W., L. Seeber, and J. Pacheco, Cross-fault triggering in November 1987 Superstition Hills earthquake sequence, southern California, Geophys. Res. Lett., 16, 199–202, 1989.
Iio, Y., A possible generating process of the southern Hyogo Prefecture earthquake—Stick of fault and slip on detachment, Zisin (J. Seism. Soc. Japan), Ser. 2, 49, 103–112, 1996 (in Japanese with English abstract).
Ikeda, Y., Implications of active fault study for the present-day tectonics of the Japan arc, Active Fault Research, 15, 93–96, 1996 (in Japanese with English abstract).
Ishikawa, N. and M. Hashimoto, Average horizontal crustal strain rates in Japan during interseismic period deduced from geodetic surveys (part 2), Zisin, (J. Seism. Soc. Japan), Ser. 2, 52, 299–315, 1999 (in Japanese with English abstract).
Ito, K. and M. Matsuzaki, Earthquake as self-organized critical phenomena, J. Geophys. Res., 95, 6853–6860, 1989.
Jaumè, S. C. and L. R. Sykes, Changes in state of stress on the southern San Andreas fault resulting from the California earthquake sequence of April to June 1992, Science, 258, 1325–1328, 1992.
Kawasaki, I., Y. Asai, and T. Tamura, Interplate moment release in seismic and seismo-geodetic bands and the seismo-geodetic coupling in the Sanriku-Oki region along the Japan trench, Zisin (J. Seism. Soc. Japan), Ser. 2, 50, Suppl., 293–307, 1998 (in Japanese with English abstract).
King, G. C. P., R. Stein, and J. Lin, Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 84, 935–953, 1
Le Pichon, X., S. Mazzotti, P. Henry, and M. Hashimoto, Deformation of Japanese islands and seismic coupling: an interpretation based on GSI permanent GPS observations, Geophys. J. Int., 134, 501–514, 1998.
Matsuda, T., Estimation of future destructive earthquakes from active faults on land in Japan, J. Phys. Earth, 25, Suppl., S251–S260, 1977.
Matsu’ura, M., D. D. Jackson, and A. B. Cheng, Dislocation model for aseismic crustal deformation at Hollister, California, J. Geophys. Res., 91, 12661–12674, 1986.
Mogi, K., Seismicity in western Japan and long-term earthquake forecasting, in Earthquake Prediction, edited by D. W. Simpson and P. G. Richards, Maurice Ewing Series, 4, American Geophysical Union, Washington, D. C., 1981.
Okada, Y., Internal deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 82, 1018–1040, 1992.
Peterson, E. T. and T. Seno, Factors affecting seismic moment release rates in subduction zones, J. Geophys. Res., 89, 10233–10248, 1984.
Pollitz, F. F. and I. S. Sacks, The 1995 Kobe, Japan, earthquake: A long-delayed aftershock of the offshore 1944 Tonankai and 1946 Nankaido earthquakes, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 87, 1–10, 1997.
Research Group for Active Faults in Japan, Active Faults in Japan, 437 pp., University of Tokyo Press, Tokyo, 1991 (in Japanese).
Ruff, L. J., Asperity distributions and large earthquake occurrence in subduction zones, Tectonophys., 211, 61–83, 1992.
Rundle, J. B., A physical model for earthquakes 1. Fluctuations and interactions, J. Geophys. Res., 93, 6237–6254, 1988a.
Rundle, J. B., A physical model for earthquakes 2. Application to southern California, J. Geophys. Res., 93, 6255–6274, 1988b.
Rundle, J. B. and H. Kanamori, Application of an inhomogeneous stress (patch) model to complex subduction zone earthquakes: A discrete interaction matrix approach, J. Geophys. Res., 92, 2606–2616, 1987.
Savage, J. C., A dislocation model of strain accumulation and release at a subduction zone, J. Geophys. Res., 88, 4984–4996, 1982.
Schwarz, D. P. and K. J. Coppersmith, Fault behavior and characteristic earthquakes: Examples from the Wasatch and San Andreas fault zones, J. Geogphys. Res., 89, 5681–5698, 1984.
Seno, T., Pattern of intraplate seismicity in southwest Japan before and after great interplate earthquakes, Tectonophys., 57, 267–283, 1979.
Shen-Tu, B. and W. E. Holt, Interseismic deformation in northern Honshu and its relationship with the subduction of the Pacific plate in the Japan trench, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 3103–3106, 1996.
Shimazaki, K., Intraplate seismicity and inter-plate earthquakes: historical activity in southwest Japan, Tectonophys., 33, 33–42, 1976.
Tsuji, Y., The Nankai earthquakes and their associated tsunamis, in “The Nankai earthquake—prepared for the next great earthquake”, Chikyu (Earth Monthly), Special Issue, 24, 36–49, 1999 (in Japanese).
Utsu, T., Correlation between great earthquakes along the Nankai trough and destructive earthquakes in western Japan, Rep. Coord. Comm. Earthq. Predict., 12, 120–122, 1974a (in Japanese).
Ustu, T., Space-time pattern of large earthquakes occurring off the Pacific coast of the Japanese islands, J. Phys. Earth, 22, 325–342, 1974b.
Ward, S. N., A synthetic seismicity model for the Middle America Trench, J. Geophys. Res., 96, 21433–21442, 1991.
Ward, S. N., A synthetic seismicity model for southern California: Cycles, probabilities, and hazards, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 22393–22418, 1996.
Wesnousky, S. G., C. H. Scholz, and K. Shimazaki, Deformation of an island arc: rates of moment release and crustal shortening in intraplate Japan determined from seismicity and Quaternary fault data, J. Geophys. Res., 87, 6829–6852, 1982.
Wessel, P. and W. H. F. Smith, Free software helps map and display data, EOS Trans. Amer Geophys. U., 72, 441, 445–446, 1991.
About this article
Cite this article
Hashimoto, M. Complexity in the recurrence of large earthquakes in southwestern Japan: A simulation with an interacting fault system model. Earth Planet Sp 53, 249–259 (2001) doi:10.1186/BF03352382
- Geodetic Data
- Japanese Island
- Nankai Trough
- Moment Release
- Fault Element