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Deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analyses in Thailand and adjacent areas using active fault data

Abstract

Seismic hazards in Thailand and adjacent areas were analyzed mainly on the basis of geological fault data. We identified 55 active fault zones using remote-sensing data on earthquake source parameters derived from both active fault data and earthquake catalogues. We selected strong ground-motion attenuation models by comparing the application of several candidate models with strong ground-motion data recorded in Thailand. Both deterministic (DSHA) and probabilistic (PSHA) approaches were used—DSHA for the design of critical construction and PSHA for the design of non-critical construction. We also applied two frequency-magnitude models in the PSHA approach: the exponential magnitude distribution model and the characteristic earthquake model. The seismic hazard results obtained using the deterministic and probabilistic approaches are not equivalent. The resulting DSHA map reveals extremely high seismic hazard levels in some areas of Thailand and in surrounding countries, while the PSHA map reveals a seismic hazard distribution similar to that of the DSHA but with lower seismic hazard levels. The areas of high seismic hazard include countries neighboring Thailand, such as Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, and Indonesia (Sumatra Island), and areas within Thailand itself, primarily those areas in northern, western, and southern Thailand that are dominated by active fault zones.

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Correspondence to Santi Pailoplee.

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Pailoplee, S., Sugiyama, Y. & Charusiri, P. Deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analyses in Thailand and adjacent areas using active fault data. Earth Planet Sp 61, 1313–1325 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1186/BF03352984

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Key words

  • Seismic hazard analysis
  • deterministic method
  • probabilistic method
  • active fault
  • Thailand