Skip to main content

Advertisement

Past, current and future of Japanese national program for earthquake prediction research

Article metrics

  • 310 Accesses

  • 12 Citations

Abstract

The Japanese national earthquake prediction program started in 1962 with a blue print for the scope and direction of research to follow. Substantial time and efforts were subsequently devoted to the construction of new observation networks and the study on the earthquake generation mechanisms. An important result has been the recognition of the great difficulty in identifying creditable precursors due to a diversity of earthquake generation process. In recent years, a new age of near real time observations of Earth’s crustal processes by dense arrays of seismic and the GPS (Global Positioning System) stations has arrived. The results of the real time monitoring may lead to a new approach in the earthquake prediction research, i.e., the quantitative forecasting of the crustal activities. The new national program, which inherits its essential observational network from all the previous programs, emphasizes the importance of modeling as well as monitoring for a sound scientific development of earthquake prediction research.

References

  1. Council for Science and Technology, On the Promotion of the Second new Program of Research and Observation for Earthquake Prediction (Recommendation), 2003 (in Japanese).

  2. Earthquake Prediction Research Group, Prediction of Earthquakes—Progress to Date and Plans for Further Development, 1962.

  3. Geodesy Council, On the Enforcement of a National Research Program for Earthquake Prediction (Recommendation), 1964.

  4. Geodesy Council, On the Enforcement of a Program for the Promotion of Earthquake Prediction (Recommendation), 1968.

  5. Geodesy Council, On the Enforcement of the Third Program for the Promotion of Earthquake Prediction (Recommendation), 1973.

  6. Geodesy Council, On the Enforcement of the Fourth National Program for the Promotion of Earthquake Prediction (Recommendation), 1978.

  7. Geodesy Council, On the Promotion of the Fifth National Program for the Promotion of Earthquake Prediction (Recommendation), 1983.

  8. Geodesy Council, On the Promotion of the Sixth National Program for the Promotion of Earthquake Prediction (Recommendation), 1988.

  9. Geodesy Council, On the Promotion of the Seventh National Program for the Promotion of Earthquake Prediction (Recommendation), 1993.

  10. Geodesy Council, On the promotion of the new Program of Research and Observation for Earthquake Prediction (Recommendation), 1998.

  11. Hashimoto, C. and M. Matsu’ura, 3-D physical modelling of stress accumulation processes at transcurrent plate boundaries, PAGEOPH, 157, 2125–2147, 2000.

  12. Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, Basic Earthquake Survey and Observation Plan, August 29, 1997 (in Japanese).

  13. Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, The promotion of Earthquake Research—Basic comprehensive policy for the promotion of earthquake observation, measurement, surveys and research—, April 23, 1999 (in Japanese with English translation).

  14. Hasegawa, A., N. Umino, and A. Takagi, Double-planed structure of the deep seismic zone in the northeastern Japan arc, Tectonophysics, 47, 43–58, 1978.

  15. Hasegawa. A., D. Zhao, S. Hori, A. Yamamoto, and S. Horiuchi, Deep structure of the northeastern Japan arc and its relationship to seismic and vocanic activity, Nature, 352, 683–689, 1991.

  16. Heki, K., S. Miyazaki, and H. Tsuji, Silent fault slip following an interplate thrust earthquake at the Japan Trench, Nature, 386, 595–598, 1997.

  17. Hirahara, K., Three-dimensional seismic structure beneath southwest Japan: The subducting Philippine Sea plate, Tectonophysics, 79, 1–44, 1981.

  18. Hirahara, K., N. Hirata, A. Ikami, et al., Three-dimensional P and S wave velocity structure in the focal region of the 1984 western Nagano prefecture earthquake, J. Phys. Earth, 40, 343–360, 1992.

  19. Hirata, N., S. Ohmi, S. Sakai, K. Katsumata, S. Matsumoto, T. Takanami, A. Yamamoto, T. Nishimura, T. Iidaka, T. Urabe, M. Sekine, T. Ooida, F. Yamazaki, H. Katao, Y. Umeda, M. Nakamura, N. Seto, T. Matsushima, H. Shimizu, and Japanese University Group of the Urgent Joint Observation for the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu Earthquake, Urgent Joint Observation of Aftershocks of the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu Earthquake, J. Phys. Earth, 44, 317–328, 1996.

  20. Hirose, H., K. Hirahara, F. Kimata, N. Fujii, and S. Miyazaki, A slow thrust slip event following the two 1996 Hyuganada earthquakes beneath the Bungo Channel, southwest Japan, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 3237–3240, 1999.

  21. Horiuchi, S., K. Ito, T. Moriya, et al., Hypocenter locations by a dense network, J. Phys. Earth, 40, 313–326, 1992.

  22. Horiuchi, S., N. Tsumura, and A. Hasegawa, Mapping of a magma reservior beneath Nikko-Shirane volcano in northern Kanto, Japan, from travel time and seismogram shape anomalies, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 18071–18090, 1997.

  23. Hyodo, M. and K. Hirahara, Modeling of stress accumulation process on inland faults in central Japan, Earth Planets Space, 55, 667–675, 2003.

  24. Igarashi, T., T. Matsuzawa, and A. Hasegawa, Repeating earthquakes and interplate aseismic slip in the northeastern Japan subduction zone, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 2249, doi:10.1029/2002JB001920, 2003.

  25. Iio, Y., T. Matsuzawa, S. Yoshida, T. Kato, and N. Hirata, Spatial and temporal changes of aseismic slip and its role on earthquake forecasting, Zisin (J. Seismol. Soc. Jpn), 52(2), 213–229, 2003 (Japanese with English abstract).

  26. Ishibashi, K., Specification of a soon-to-occur seismic faulting in the Tokai district, central Japan, based upon seismotectonics, in Earthquake Prediction: An International Review, edited by D. W. Simpson and P. G. Richards, Maurice Ewing Ser. vol. 4, pp. 297–332, AGU, Washington, DC, 1981.

  27. Kasaya, T., N. Oshiman, N. Sumitomo, M. Uyeshima, Y. Iio, and D. Uehara, Resistivity structure around the hypocentral area of the 1984 Western Nagano Prefecture earthquake in the central Japan, Earth, Planets Space, 54, 107–118, 2002.

  28. Kato, N., A possible model for large preseismic slip on a deeper extension of a seismic rupture plane, Earth Planet. Science Lett., 216, 17–25, 2003.

  29. Kato, N. and T. Hirasawa, A model for possible crustal deformation pior to a coming large interpolate earthquake in the Tokai district, central Japan, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 89, 1401–1417, 1999.

  30. Katsumata, K., N. Wada, and M. Kasahara, Newly imaged shape of the deep seismic zone within the subducting Pacific plate beneath the Hokkaido corner, Japan-Kurile arc-arc junction, J. Geophys. Res., 108(B12), 2565, doi:10.1029/2002JB002175, 2003.

  31. Kawasaki, I., Y. Asai, and Y. Tamura, Space-time distribution of interplate moment release including slow earthquakes and the seismo-geodetic coupling in the Sanriku-oki region along the Japan trench, Tectonophysics, 330, 267–283, 2001.

  32. Lay, T. and H. Kanamori, Earthquake doublets in the Solomon Islands, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 21, 283–304, 1980.

  33. Matsubara, M., N. Hirata, S. Sakai, and I. Kawasaki, A low velocity zone beneath the Hida Mountains derived from dense array observation and tomographic method, Earth Planets Space, 52, 143–154, 2000.

  34. Matsuzawa, T., T. Igarashi, and A. Hasegawa, Characteristic small-earthquake sequence off Sanriku, northeastern Honshu, Japan, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29(11), 10.1029/2001GL014632, 2002.

  35. Miyazaki, S., P. Segall, J. Fukuda, and T. Kato, Space time distribution of afterslip following the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake: Implications for variations in fault zone frictional properties, Geophy. Res. Lett., 31, L06623, doi:10.1029/2003GL019410, 2004.

  36. Mogi, K., Recent earthquake prediction research in Japan, Science, 233, 324–330, 1986.

  37. Nakajima, J., T. Matsuzawa, A. Hasegawa, and D. Zhao, Three-dimensional structure of Vp, Vs and Vp/Vs beneath northeastern Japan: Implications for arc magmatism and fluids, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 21843–21857, 2001.

  38. Nishimura, T., S. Miura, K. Tachibara, et al., Distribution of seismic coupling on the subducting plate boundary in northeastern Japan inferred from GPS observations, Tectonophysics, 323, 217–238, 2000.

  39. Obara, K., Nonvolcanic deep tremor associated with subduction in Southwest Japan, Science, 296, 1679–1681, 2002.

  40. Obara, K., S. Hori, K. Kasahara, Y. Okada, and S. Aoi, Hi-net: High sensitivity seismograph network in Japan, Eos Trans. AGU, 81(48), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract S71A–04, 2000.

  41. Ozawa, S., M. Murakami, M. Kaidzu, T. Tada, T. Sagiya, Y. Hatanaka, H. Yarai, and T. Nishimura, Detection and monitoring of ongoing aseismic slip in the Tokai Region, Central Japan, Science, 298, 1009–1012, 2002.

  42. Sagiya, T., S. Miyazaki, and T. Tada, Continuous GPS array and present-day crustal deformation of Japan, PAGEOPH, 157, 2303–2322, 2000.

  43. Shimazaki, K. and T. Nakata, Time-predictable model for large earthquakes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 7, 279–282, 1980.

  44. Tsumura, K., Microearthquake activity in the Kanto district, in Publication for the 50th Anniversary of the Great Kanto Earthquake in 1923, edited by Tsubokawa et al., Earthq. Res. Inst., pp. 67–87, 1973.

  45. Urabe, T., N. Hirata, and K. Takano, A nation-wide seismic telemetry network in Japan using satellite communication, EOS, 79(45), F569, 1998.

  46. Utsu, T., Large earthquake near Hokkaido and the expectancy of the occurrence of a large earthquake off-Nemuro, Rep. Coord. Comm. Earthquake Predict.7, 7–13, 1972.

  47. Wakita, H., Y. Nakamura, K. Notsu, M. Noguchi, and T. Asada, Radon anomaly: A possible precursor of the 1978 Izu-Oshima-kinkai earthquake, Science, 207, 882–883, 1980.

  48. Yagi, Y., M. Kikuchi, and T. Sagiya, Co-seismic, post-seismic slip, and aftershocks associated with two large earthquakes in 1996 in Hyuga-nada, Japan, Earth Planets Space, 53, 793–803, 2001.

  49. Yamanaka, Y. and M. Kikuchi, Asperity map along the subduction zone in northeastern Japan inferred from regional seismic data, J. Geophys. Res., 109, doi:101029/2003JB002683, 2004.

  50. Yoshida, S. and A. Kato, Single and double asperity failures in a large-scale biaxial experiment, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28(3), 451–454, 10.1029/2000GL012211, 2001.

Download references

Author information

Correspondence to Naoshi Hirata.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Hirata, N. Past, current and future of Japanese national program for earthquake prediction research. Earth Planet Sp 56, xliii–l (2004) doi:10.1186/BF03353075

Download citation

Key words

  • Earthquake prediction
  • national program
  • quantitative forecast
  • the blue print
  • asperity